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Archive for April 2011

How did parties do in ethnic majority seats in Sarawak SE 2011?

When looking at the election results for 2011, PR only seems to have achieved great support from Chinese-majority seats.

But when comparing the results with 2006, it becomes obvious that BN has lost supporters across all ethnic-majority seats.

How did BN and PR both have a reduction in popular vote for Melanau+Malay majority seats? Some reasons are:

– New voters and increased voter turnout led to a bigger voter base that PR/BN needed to win over to retain 2006 level of support
– Independent, PCM and SNAP candidates won over some support
– Some seats with significant Melanau+Malay population fell short of the 50% requirement for ethnic majority seats. These were placed in the Mixed category
– don’t think of it as PR got less than BN, its actually PR 2011 got less than PR 2006

To give you more to think about, here are the voter population growth rates since 2006:

Chinese – 2.07%
Bidayuh – 23.57%
Iban – 12.65%
Orang Ulu – 21.79%
Melanau+Malay – 11.44%

Ahmed Kamal

* PR did not contest every seat in 2006. The perecentage of seats contested is shown in parentheses()
* Popular vote calculated based on valid votes cast during the election. Spoilt/lost votes not included
* Ethnic majority determined by which voter ethnicity is >50% of the seat
—————-
View seat details at http://politweet.org/site/live_sarawak.html
Summary of the data used, including who won in 2011:

Chinese – 13 seats, PR: 11, BN: 2
N9 PADUNGAN
N10 PENDING
N11 BATU LINTANG
N12 KOTA SENTOSA
N13 BATU KAWAH
N39 REPOK
N45 BUKIT ASSEK
N46 DUDONG
N47 BAWANG ASSAN
N48 PELAWAN
N63 PIASAU
N64 PUJUT
N65 SENADIN

Mixed – 3 seats, PR: 1, BN: 2
N59 KIDURONG
N61 BEKENU
N62 LAMBIR

Bidayuh – 6 seats, PR: 0, BN: 6
N1 OPAR
N2 TASIK BIRU
N16 BENGOH
N17 TARAT
N18 TEBEDU
N19 KEDUP

Iban – 20 seats, PR: 2, BN: 17, IND: 1
N25 BALAI RINGIN
N26 BUKIT BEGUNAN
N27 SIMANGGANG
N28 ENGKILILI
N29 BATANG AIR
N31 LAYAR
N32 BUKIT SABAN
N34 KRIAN
N40 MERADONG
N41 PAKAN
N42 MELUAN
N43 NGEMAH
N44 MACHAN
N52 TAMIN
N53 KAKUS
N54 PELAGUS
N55 KATIBAS
N56 BALEH
N60 KEMENA
N66 MARUDI

Orang Ulu – 4 seats, PR: 1, BN: 3
N57 BELAGA
N67 TELANG USAN
N69 BATU DANAU
N70 BA’KELALAN

Melanau+Malay – 25 seats, PR: 0, BN: 25
N3 TANJONG DATU
N4 PANTAI DAMAI
N5 DEMAK LAUT
N6 TUPONG
N7 SAMARIANG
N8 SATOK
N14 ASAJAYA
N15 MUARA TUANG
N20 SADONG JAYA
N21 SIMUNJAN
N22 SEBUYAU
N23 LINGGA
N24 BETING MARO
N30 SARIBAS
N33 KALAKA
N35 BELAWAI
N36 SEMOP
N37 DARO
N38 JEMORENG
N49 NANGKA
N50 DALAT
N51 BALINGIAN
N58 JEPAK
N68 BUKIT KOTA
N71 BUKIT SARI

Written by politweet

April 24, 2011 at 3:27 am

Did BN retain its popular vote in Sarawak SE 2011?

For the most part, BN failed to retain the popular vote it had in each seat from 2006. You can view a listing of seats at http://www.politweet.org/site/live_sarawak.html

Here is the list of % changes in each DUN, as per the graph:

BELAGA 25.85

ENGKILILI 25.18
BATANG AIR 15.21
SADONG JAYA 13.71
SARIBAS 13.42
MERADONG 12.99
PANTAI DAMAI 12
SAMARIANG 10.56
BUKIT BEGUNAN 8.28
BATU DANAU 7.59
BALAI RINGIN 7.43
JEMORENG 7.36
SEMOP 4.9
KEMENA 4.61
NGEMAH 4.11
BELAWAI 3.38
BUKIT KOTA 2.54
LINGGA 0.58

DARO 0
DALAT 0

DEMAK LAUT -1.65
SIMUNJAN -2.04
DUDONG -2.25
BUKIT SABAN -2.47
MUARA TUANG -2.57
SATOK -3.51
BAWANG ASSAN -4.23
PAKAN -4.57
MARUDI -5.42
SEBUYAU -5.47
NANGKA -5.52
KEDUP -5.55
TUPONG -5.98
BETING MARO -6.13
PENDING -6.38
BUKIT SARI -6.73
BEKENU -6.88
ASAJAYA -7.68
TANJONG DATU -7.97
TEBEDU -8.31
MELUAN -8.46
BUKIT ASSEK -9.63
KOTA SENTOSA -9.74
TAMIN -9.8
TASIK BIRU -10.72
JEPAK -11.24
BALEH -11.4
BATU LINTANG -11.6
BA’KELALAN -11.71
BENGOH -12.07
LAYAR -12.55
TARAT -12.85
REPOK -12.97
KIDURONG -13.78
BALINGIAN -14.23
OPAR -14.58
KALAKA -15.18
MACHAN -15.34
PELAWAN -16.69
KATIBAS -16.94
KAKUS -17
SIMANGGANG -18
PUJUT -19.27
LAMBIR -19.39
PADUNGAN -20.41
TELANG USAN -23.18
BATU KAWAH -24.29
SENADIN -24.93
KRIAN -28.09
PIASAU -28.87
PELAGUS -35.03

I would like to reiterate that the popular vote is calculated as:

Popular Vote for X = Valid votes cast for X / Valid votes cast in total

This removes the factors of spoilt and missing votes. There are pro/cons to that but this is the formula that I’ll be using for all stats.

Ahmed Kamal

Written by politweet

April 23, 2011 at 3:23 am