Politweet.Org

Observing Malaysian Social Media

Archive for May 2014

Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya (the DAP candidate) and Mah Siew Keong (the GERAKAN candidate) for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Content was taken from the final day of campaigning on May 30th. Polling day is today on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

Dyana Sofya held a ceramah in Teluk Intan on the night of the last day. We estimated 14,000 – 22,000 people attended the event.
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Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2

During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the second week of the campaign, May 27th – May 30th (morning). Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.

From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.

However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.

Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
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Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Mah Siew Keong, the GERAKAN candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

We have divided the content into 2 periods:

  • Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
  • Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)

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Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya, the DAP candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

We have divided the content into 2 periods:

  • Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
  • Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)

Read the rest of this entry »

Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1

During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the first week of the campaign, May 19th – May 26th. Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.

From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.

However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.

Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
Read the rest of this entry »

Teluk Intan Social Media Stats

As a follow-up to our previous analysis on voter sentiment, we have collected social media statistics that are relevant to the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and GERAKAN under Barisan Nasional (BN) are contesting in the by-election, so our analysis will focus on these parties.

From what we have so far it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
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Teluk Intan #GE13 Analysis

During the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology for estimating individual voter support based on polling lane results from the 12th General Election (GE12). The results of these calculations were used to design a program to predict election results based on ‘swing’ parameters fed in e.g. ethnic support; age group; increasing partisanship etc. You can read a summary of this method at the end of this post.

Using the polling lane results of the 13th General Election we compared our previous calculations and come up with an estimated swing. This can help inform analysts and campaigners for Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR).

For the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we performed an analysis of the GE13 results and found that:

  1. Support for PR has increased by an average of 3.33% since GE12, from 43.85% to 47.18%
  2. Support increased from Chinese voters of all ages
  3. Support increased from Malay voters below 40 years old
  4. Support decreased from Malay voters aged 40 years and above
  5. Malay and Indian women voters may be a weak point for PR, particularly Indian women
  6. PR is likely to retain the seat this by-election provided that GE13 voting patterns remain the same. The choice of candidates by BN and PR may affect the voting patterns due to differences in ethnicity, age, gender and experience. However we have no data to predict the impact of these differences.

For social media statistics on Teluk Intan please check this post.
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