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How Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat Performed With Voters in Sarawak (GE13)

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in Sarawak. 31 of the total 222 Parliament seats are in Sarawak.

Our analysis will focus on Malay, Chinese and Bumiputera Sarawak voters. Other ethnic groups such as Indians, Orang Asli and Bumiputera Sabah voters will be counted under the ‘Others’ category unless otherwise specified. This is due to their low numbers within the electorate and the lack of detail within the National Census data.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis, other than the section on polling lanes. Postal voters need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

The predicted support for PR based on GE12 was estimated to be low. This is because in GE12 the PR component parties did not contest all seats. SNAP and Independents contested BN in some seats with no PR candidates. There were also seats that were won by BN uncontested. PR was effectively untested in Sarawak.

We tested analysis using SNAP and Independent results as ‘pro-Opposition’ in place of PR. However this approach made little impact on the analysis. A vote for SNAP or Independents also cannot be assumed as a vote for PR. To keep analysis consistent with a ‘BN versus PR’ perspective we did not treat SNAP and Independent candidate results as PR results.

We will also present analysis of seats at the state (DUN) level based on individual voting at the Parliament level. It is not as accurate as performing analysis based on state-level results but it should be applicable for constituencies where voters voted for the same coalition (BN / PR) for both state and Parliament.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters in Sarawak only.

2. The Ethnic Divide

The 2 graphs below show the gap between ethnic groups in Sarawak by age in 1970 and 2010, from ages 0 – 39 years. This was taken from the National Census.
bumi_sarawak_popgraph1

The top-most line (red) represents Malays, followed by Chinese (yellow), Other Bumiputera (purple) and Indians (blue). Both graphs use the same scale. Compared to 1970 there are more non-Chinese youth in 2010 relative to Chinese youth.

The National Census data in 1970 only provided a breakdown by ethnicity for these 2 groups. When we separate the Bumiputera & Others statistic for 2010 into Bumiputera Sarawak and Bumiputera Malay (minus the Others), we get the following graph:

bumi_sarawak_popgraph2

In 1970, the division between races within the total population (1.04 million) was:

  • 57% Chinese
  • 43% Bumiputera & Others (including Malays)

In 2010, the division between races within the total population (2.56 million) was:

  • 16% Chinese
  • 91% Bumiputera & Others (including Malays), which can be separated into the following (percentages based on total population)
    • 37% Malay
    • 15% Bumiputera Sarawak

In GE13 (2013), the division between races among 1.08 million total voters (early, postal and regular voters) is estimated to be:

  • 99% Malay
  • 11% Chinese
  • 05% Bumiputera Sarawak (non-Malay)
  • 85% Others

In our previous report on Pakatan Rakyat’s performance with the Malay electorate in Peninsular Malaysia, we highlighted that the Malay population and electorate are increasing faster compared to other ethnic groups.

In Sarawak the higher numbers of young Bumiputera Sarawak citizens compared to other ethnicities implies that Bumiputera Sarawak voters will remain the dominant group in the electorate in future elections. This is assuming that voter registration rates across ethnicities remain constant.

3. Summary of Sarawak GE 13 Results

In GE13 PR won 89 seats while BN won 133 seats. In Sarawak PR won 6 seats while BN won 25 seats. The breakdown of seats won by urban development category is shown in the table below:

Urban Development Category / Party DAP PKR BN Total
Rural 1 0 24 25
Semi-Urban 2 1 1 4
Urban 2 0 0 2
Total 5 1 25 31

In chart form:

total_swak_seats_urban_dev

The number of voters by urban development category is listed below:

Urban Development Category / Party DAP PKR BN Total
Rural 56,536 0 646,119 702,655
Semi-Urban 97,744 69,564 59,601 226,909
Urban 132,979 0 0 132,979
Total 287,259 69,564 705,720 1,062,543

Focusing on the 3 largest ethnic groups, the number of regular voters of each ethnicity in seats won by respective parties is shown in the table below:

Ethnic Group DAP PKR BN Total
Malay 16,263 10,284 177,751 204,298
Chinese 217,289 40,811 89,507 347,607
Bumiputera Sarawak 52,114 17,912 433,085 503,111

 

In chart form:

regvoters_swak_ethnic_byseat

By comparing the two sets of data it is clear that BN won the most rural seats and have the most Malay voters (86.7% of the total regular Malay voters) and Bumiputera Sarawak voters (86.1% of the total regular Bumiputera Sarawak voters) in their seats. DAP have the most Chinese voters in their seats (62.5% of the total regular Chinese voters).

This table shows the number of ethnic majority seats won by each party:

Ethnic Majority DAP PKR BN Total
Malay majority 0 0 5 5
Chinese majority 5 1 0 6
Bumiputera Sarawak majority 0 0 19 19
Mixed 0 0 1 1

 

In chart form:

swak_total_seats_ethnic

Some key points from this chart:

  • DAP and PKR won all the Chinese majority seats
  • BN won all the Malay majority and Bumiputera Sarawak majority seats

The chart below shows the distribution of the 1,062,543 regular voters by ethnicity in Sarawak:

swak_regvoter_racepie

The following series of charts show the distribution of voters of each ethnic group based on seats won by each party. For example, this chart shows that 87% of Malay voters reside in seats won by BN:

swak_malaypie

swak_chinesepie

swak_bumipie

This table shows the total number of Bumiputera Sarawak voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:

Ethnic Group DAP PKR BN PR BN(%) PR(%) Ethnic Total
Rural

Bumiputera Sarawak

14,086 0 395,819 14,086 96.56 3.44 409,905
Semi-Urban

Bumiputera Sarawak

24,734 17,912 37,266 42,646 46.63 53.37 79,912
Urban

Bumiputera Sarawak

13,294 0 0 13,294 0 100 13,294
Party Total 52,114 17,912 433,085 70,026 86.08 13.92 503,111

 

From the ethnic total of 503,111 regular voters, 81.5% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters reside in Rural seats; 15.9% in Semi-Urban seats and 2.6% in Urban seats.

This table shows the total number of Malay voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:

Ethnic Group DAP PKR BN PR BN(%) PR(%) Ethnic Total
Rural Malay 1,166 0 172,387 1,166 99.33 0.67 173,553
Semi-Urban Malay 7,067 10,284 5,364 17,351 23.61 76.39 22,715
Urban Malay 8,030 0 0 8,030 0 100 8,030
Party Total 16,263 10,284 177,751 26,547 87.01 12.99 204,298

 

From the ethnic total of 204,298 regular voters, 85% of Malay voters reside in Rural seats; 11.1% in Semi-Urban seats and 3.9% in Urban seats.

This table shows the total number of Chinese voters by urban development category in seats won by each party:

Ethnic Group DAP PKR BN PR BN(%) PR(%) Ethnic Total
Rural Chinese 41,179 0 72,815 41,179 63.88 36.12 113,994
Semi-Urban Chinese 65,690 40,811 16,692 106,501 13.55 86.45 123,193
Urban Chinese 110,420 0 0 110,420 0 100 110,420
Party Total 217,289 40,811 89,507 258,100 25.75 74.25 347,607

 

From the ethnic total of 347,607 regular voters, 32.8% of Chinese voters reside in Rural seats; 35.4% in Semi-Urban seats and 31.8% in Urban seats. Chinese voters are almost evenly distributed between the 3 categories of seats.

Key points for this section are:

  • DAP and PKR victories were won mainly in urban and semi-urban seats.
  • PR parties represent 74% of Chinese voters;
  • BN represents 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters
  • BN won 96% of rural seats containing 96.56% of rural Bumiputera Sarawak voters and 99.33% of rural Malay voters
  • BN seats represent 87% of Malay voters and 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters
  • PR parties won both urban seats and 4/5 semi-urban seats. Together these 6 seats contain 62.4% of Chinese voters; 13% of Malay voters; and 13.9% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters.
  • DAP represents 64% of the combined urban and semi-urban voters
  • DAP represents 62.5% of Chinese voters

This section is a general overview that shows the size of the electorate represented by each party. However representation is not the same as support, as each seat has supporters of both PR and BN. Support is covered in the following sections.

4. Measuring Regular Voter Support by Age

During the election voters are grouped into polling lanes based on age. The results of each lane are reflective of support by the age group. By mapping registered voters to polling lane results we can estimate the support by race and age. Postal voting lanes are not shown in the charts. Not all lanes are of equal size.

The bubble chart below shows the average probability of Malay voters in a specific polling lane voting for PR:

swak_scatter_malay

Each point in the graph represents one polling lane. The horizontal scale shows the percentage of Malay voters in the lane. The vertical scale shows the percentage probability of Malay voters in that lane of voting for PR. The size of the bubble is relative to the number of voters with large bubbles representing high numbers of voters. The level of support can be analysed by looking at where the largest circles are concentrated.

Any point above the 50% probability line is good for PR. From this scatter plot we can tell that PR does not perform well with Malay voters. Even in fence-sitters in mixed polling lanes the number of voters is small (16% of the total regular Malay voters). The probability of voting for PR is significantly low in polling lanes with >70% Malay voters.

For comparison, here is the bubble chart for Bumiputera Sarawak and voters from other ethnicities (not including Malay or Chinese). Other ethnicities had to be included because of the way our polling lane data was structured in 2013.

swak_scatter_bumi

Support for PR is low particularly in the majority of polling lanes where the percentage of Bumiputera Sarawak and other ethnicities is high.

This is the bubble chart for Chinese voters:

swak_scatter_cina

There is a clear trend of the probability of Chinese voters voting for PR increasing as the percentage of Chinese voters increase.

This bubble chart shows the probabilities for postal and early voters.

swak_scatter_postal

The probability of postal and early voters voting for PR is very low, almost entirely concentrated below 20%. The only exception was Chinese voters at the 50% line, which were very few in number.

The following graph shows how average voter support shifted by age group, divided by seats won by respective parties. This was calculated by taking the average of individual support values from voters across all seats for each age group. This gives a picture of how voters in those seats favoured the winning party.

swk_avg_est_swing_all

Some key points from this graph are:

  • DAP had the highest positive swing from voters of all ages, particularly aged 42 and below
  • PKR and BN seats had similar levels of improvement with swing values between +6% to +12% for voters aged 70 and below
  • The PKR seat (they only won Miri) had a higher swing from voters aged 33 and below and voters aged 58 – 67.

This graph shows the average level of support from voters in seats won by respective parties after the swing in GE13. Anything close to or above 50% is good for PR.

swk_avg_est_support_all

Some key points from this graph are:

  • DAP has the highest level of support from voters in their seats
  • PKR has above 50% support in their seat, except from voters aged 70 and older
  • BN has low support for PR in their seats, consistently below 30%
  • There is a dip in support from voters aged 68 years and older in DAP and PKR seats

The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Malay voters.

swk_avg_est_swing_malay

swk_avg_est_support_malay

Some key points from these graphs are:

  • DAP has the highest swing values from voters in their seats, though support remains low at below 40% for all ages
  • PKR had minor improvement from Malay voters in their seat but support remains just below 50%
  • Malay voters in BN seats swung away from PR, with the negative swing increasing with age. The result is a support level for PR that is below 20%
  • The negative swing in BN seats reflects 87% of Malay voters.

 

The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Chinese voters.

swk_avg_est_swing_cina

swk_avg_est_support_cina

Some key points from these graphs are:

  • DAP has the highest level of improvement from voters in their seats, which represents 62% of Chinese voters
  • Chinese voters swung to PR in all seats, with greater improvements in BN seats compared to PKR
  • After the swing support levels from Chinese voters in BN and PKR seats are at a similarly high level
  • Support from the Chinese electorate appears reliably strong.

 

The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Bumiputera Sarawak voters.

swk_avg_est_swing_bumiswak

swk_avg_est_support_bumiswak

Some key points from these graphs are:

  • Voters in BN and DAP seats recorded the highest swing levels towards PR, largely between 5% – 10%. BN seats recorded the highest swing values.
  • PKR had better swing values from voters aged 48 years and above
  • After the swing support for PR was strongest in the PKR seat (Miri) with values between 40% and 50%.
  • Support for PR in DAP and BN seats remains low, between 23% – 33%.
  • Support from the Bumiputera Sarawak electorate appears weak. DAP and PKR may manage to increase their odds by repeating a positive swing of 5% – 15%, but support values in BN seats are very low. BN seats represent 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters.

This section describes voter support by age, taken as an average of support across voters within each age group. These graphs do not show the number of voters – a large negative swing from a small group of voters can be easily offset by a small positive swing from a large group of voters.

These graphs only serve as an indicator of where average support levels are at and what direction they are heading in. Because averages of positive and negative swing values can results in a net positive or negative, we need to look at individual voter support levels to get a more accurate reading.

 

5. Measuring Overall Regular Voter Support

Because individual voters have their own support and swing statistics, we can calculate the proportion of the electorate that is leaning towards PR (>50% probability of voting PR); leaning towards BN (<50% probability of voting PR); and on the fence (50% probability of voting PR).

Voters who are leaning BN might still vote for PR, so this metric is only an indicator of how good the odds are for PR/BN to win support from the electorate. It is important to note that PR did not perform well or contest every seat in GE12, so statistically they were starting from a very weak position. This is why certain swing values are very high.

The two charts below show the predicted and estimated support from regular voters in Sarawak. By comparing the two we can see how support has shifted.

swk_supportpie_all

Prior to GE13, the electorate was leaning heavily towards BN with only 10% leaning towards PR. After GE13 PR increased their share of support by 20 percentage points while BN lost 23 percentage points. The proportion of fence-sitters increased to 12%.

The charts below show voter support from the Malay electorate:

swak_supportpie_malay

Based on GE12 results, the predicted support for PR from the Malay electorate was <1%. After GE13 support for PR dropped to 0. Any votes obtained came from the fence sitters.

The charts below show voter support from the Bumiputera Sarawak electorate. This does not include other ethnicities (as in the polling lane bubble charts).

swak_supportpie_bumi

PR managed to increase their share of support from 2% to 9%. Fence-sitters increased by 3 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 10 percentage points.

The charts below show voter support from the Chinese electorate.

swak_supportpie_cina

The shift in support was quite dramatic due to PR’s poor performance and lack of participation in all seats in GE12. Support for PR increased by 53 percentage points, while support for BN dropped by 55 percentage points. Fence-sitters increased by 2 percentage points.

For comparison here are the voter support charts for the Chinese electorate in Peninsular Malaysia:

swak_supportpie_cina_pen

In Peninsular Malaysia the shift in support from Chinese voters was less dramatic with PR gaining 16 percentage points. BN lost 17 percentage points, reducing its share to only 3%.

By comparing this with Sarawak we can say that PR has stronger support from Chinese voters in Sarawak at 79% compared to Peninsular Malaysia at 77%. The smaller proportion of fence-sitters (12% for Sarawak versus 20% for Peninsular Malaysia) implies that support from the Chinese electorate is more stable.

 

6. A Closer Look at Iban and Bidayuh Support

Based on detailed information on voters we can measure support from Iban and Bidayuh communities. The breakdown of the 503,111 Bumiputera Sarawak voters by ethnicity is listed below.

Ethnic Group Regular Voters (%) of Bumiputera Sarawak
Iban 258,043 51.29
Bidayuh 74,676 14.84
Other Bumiputera Sarawak 100,888 20.05
Unknown Bumiputera Sarawak 69,504 13.81

 

The unknown Bumiputera voters presented a possible issue, however their numbers are spread out across all Sarawak seats. There was no clear pattern to suggest that they are primarily from a single ethnic group. The findings of this section should still apply to Iban majority and Bidayuh majority seats.

The table below shows the percentage of Iban and Bidayuh voters in PR and BN seats.

Ethnic Group Regular Voters In PR Seats (%) In BN Seats (%)
Iban 258,043 16.04 83.96
Bidayuh 74,676 7.78 92.22

 

The Bidayuh-majority seats are listed below:

Seat Code Name Winning Party Bidayuh (%) Avg. Bidayuh Support for PR (GE13) (%)
199 SERIAN BN 65.25 19.7
192 MAS GADING BN 63.47 18.9
198 MAMBONG BN 58.77 25.0

 

The Iban-majority seats are listed below:

Seat Code Name Winning Party Iban (%) Avg. Iban Support for PR (GE13) (%)
209 JULAU BN 82.21 15.9
214 SELANGAU BN 77.84 17.6
203 LUBOK ANTU BN 72.99 16.6
210 KANOWIT BN 71.33 34.8
215 KAPIT BN 66.33 18.9
202 SRI AMAN BN 63.14 20.6

 

6.1 Iban Support by Age

The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Iban voters.

swk_avg_est_swing_iban

swk_avg_est_support_iban

Some key points from these graphs are:

  • Voters in BN seats had high swing values towards PR, averaging at 15%.
  • Voters in DAP seats had high swing values towards PR with voters below 34 years old increasing support by 9.24% – 11.93%.
  • Voters in the PKR seat had a marginal swing towards PR other than voters aged 36 – 48 where there was a negative swing of -0.09% to -2.83%.
  • After the swing support from Iban voters was highest in the PKR seat, though still below the 50% line
  • DAP and BN seats had low support levels across all age groups

6.2 Overall Iban Support

The charts below show voter support from the Iban electorate.

swak_supportpie_iban

The percentages are identical to the previous Bumiputera Sarawak charts. PR managed to increase their share of support from 2% to 9%. Fence-sitters increased by 3 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 10 percentage points.

6.3 Bidayuh Support by Age

The following graphs show the average shift in voter support by age group and voter support levels for Bidayuh voters.

swk_avg_est_swing_bidayuh

swk_avg_est_support_bidayuh

Some key points from these graphs are:

  • Voters in BN seats had high swing values towards PR, averaging at 15%.
  • Voters in DAP seats had the highest swing values towards PR with voters below 38 years old increasing support by 22.6% – 32.5%.
  • Voters in BN seats swung to PR by an average of 9.5%
  • Voters in the PKR seat had a marginal swing towards PR mainly concentrated between ages 27 – 35. There was a negative swing from voters between ages 37 – 48 (except 45 year olds).
  • After the swing support from Bidayuh voters was highest in the PKR seat though still below 50%. Support ranged from 35.4% – 50.7%.
  • Support from Bidayuh voters in DAP seats was similar to PKR’s levels, ranging from 36% – 47%
  • Support from Bidayuh voters in BN seats were consistently low at an average of 22%.

 

6.4 Overall Bidayuh Support

The charts below show voter support from the Bidayuh electorate.

swak_supportpie_bidayuh

These charts show that despite the better swing values for Bidayuh voters compared to Iban voters, PR actually lost support. This is because voters who swung to PR came more from the Leaning BN group and fence-sitters group, with the shift being too small for them to go over to the Leaning PR group. PR’s share of support was reduced to 1%. Fence-sitters increased by 5 percentage points while BN supporters dropped by 4 percentage points.

 

7. Estimating Performance in State Assembly Seats

Because we measure voter support at the individual level, based on where they are registered to vote we can summarise voter support and swing and the State Assembly (DUN) level. This is based on the assumption that the majority of voters would have voted for the same party/coalition for both the State and Federal levels.

The following table lists the 71 State Assembly Seats and their support levels for PR in GE13. The list is sorted by the support for PR from highest to lowest. The winning party for each seat in Sarawak’s State Election in 2011 is shown.

Parliament Seat Code DUN

Seat Code

Name Winning Party (2011) Support for PR in GE13 (%)
195 9 PADUNGAN DAP 76.83
195 10 PENDING DAP 74.91
211 45 BUKIT ASSEK DAP 74.20
196 11 BATU LINTANG PKR 73.89
212 48 PELAWAN DAP 73.27
196 12 KOTA SENTOSA DAP 72.90
205 34 KRIAN PKR 61.98
219 64 PUJUT DAP 59.11
217 59 KIDURONG DAP 57.80
208 39 REPOK DAP 54.36
219 63 PIASAU DAP 53.45
196 13 BATU KAWAH DAP 52.53
220 67 TELANG USAN BN 51.70
208 40 MERADONG DAP 50.30
211 46 DUDONG DAP 50.05
219 65 SENADIN BN 49.93
222 70 BA`KELALAN PKR 47.56
220 66 MARUDI BN 46.44
212 47 BAWANG ASSAN BN 45.17
202 27 SIMANGGANG BN 43.87
218 62 LAMBIR BN 40.44
210 44 MACHAN BN 39.38
198 16 BENGOH BN 36.83
212 49 NANGKA BN 34.74
210 43 NGEMAH BN 34.12
198 17 TARAT BN 33.46
221 68 BUKIT KOTA BN 32.79
218 61 BEKENU BN 32.70
205 33 KALAKA BN 31.71
216 57 BELAGA BN 31.09
192 2 TASIK BIRU BN 31.06
217 60 KEMENA BN 30.63
204 31 LAYAR BN 30.53
199 19 KEDUP BN 29.78
215 54 PELAGUS Independent 28.97
194 8 SATOK BN 28.76
214 53 KAKUS BN 28.75
194 6 TUPONG BN 28.60
221 69 BATU DANAU BN 28.19
197 15 MUARA TUANG BN 28.16
201 24 BETING MARO BN 24.26
217 58 JEPAK BN 23.99
197 14 ASAJAYA BN 23.24
201 22 SEBUYAU BN 23.18
201 23 LINGGA BN 22.99
203 29 BATANG AIR BN 22.12
204 30 SARIBAS BN 20.02
192 1 OPAR BN 19.98
193 3 TANJONG DATU BN 19.87
204 32 BUKIT SABAN BN 19.80
222 71 BUKIT SARI BN 18.77
202 26 BUKIT BEGUNAN BN 18.70
199 18 TEBEDU BN 18.07
209 41 PAKAN BN 17.53
209 42 MELUAN BN 17.49
202 25 BALAI RINGIN BN 17.15
194 7 SAMARIANG BN 17.06
216 56 BALEH BN 15.92
200 21 SIMUNJAN BN 15.76
213 51 BALINGIAN BN 15.49
207 37 DARO BN 15.18
206 35 BELAWAI BN 15.12
203 28 ENGKILILI BN 13.26
193 4 PANTAI DAMAI BN 12.92
193 5 DEMAK LAUT BN 12.73
207 38 JEMORENG BN 11.96
214 52 TAMIN BN 11.77
200 20 SADONG JAYA BN 11.49
215 55 KATIBAS BN 11.18
206 36 SEMOP BN 10.88
213 50 DALAT BN 10.50

 

In the upcoming state election there will be 82 seats instead of 71 so the statistics here will not be directly applicable. It depends on which of the old seats will be divided to create new seats.

However based on these numbers it is likely that the Opposition will retain their 15 seats and add 2 more seats – N65.SENADIN and N67.TELANG USAN. Based on the current support levels and swing indicators, the Opposition can hope to win at most 22 seats starting from PADUNGAN to MACHAN in the above list.

8. Conclusion

PR performed poorly with Malay and Bumiputera Sarawak voters. BN won seats containing 87% of Malay voters and 86% of Bumiputera Sarawak voters. Support for PR from Malay voters dropped to the point where zero voters are estimated to be leaning towards PR. The Malay electorate also swung away from PR in seats won by BN. This negative shift was not observed at the same level for other ethnic groups.

Support from Bumiputera Sarawak voters only increased by 7 percentage points. Between Iban and Bidayuh voters, PR performed better with Iban voters. However the level of support for PR from voters of both ethnic groups remains low.

The urban-rural divide was clearly demonstrated by PR winning all the urban seats and BN winning 24 out of 25 rural seats. The Opposition needs to expand its base into the rural areas.

PR performed well with Chinese voters, even better than in Peninsular Malaysia. However PR won all the Chinese-majority seats and 74% of the Chinese electorate are in PR’s constituencies. Campaigns that target the Chinese electorate will not deliver enough seats to form the government.

Based on the GE13 results BN remains in a comfortable position with the Malay and Bumiputera Sarawak electorate.

The only way for the Opposition (either Pakatan Harapan or another state-level coalition) to win the state is to address the issues that caused the Malay voters and different Bumiputera Sarawak ethnic groups to vote for BN. As mentioned in the previous section the Opposition only stands to win 15 – 22 state seats without a dramatic shift in support.

Appendix 1: Level of Support by Parliament Seat

Seat Code Seat Name Majority Race Urban Development Category Avg. Support for PR (%) Avg. Support for BN (%)
192 MAS GADING Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 26.92 40.40
193 SANTUBONG Malay Rural 14.50 83.16
194 PETRA JAYA Malay Rural 24.02 75.44
195 BANDAR KUCHING Chinese Urban 74.40 25.47
196 STAMPIN Chinese Urban 64.83 34.43
197 KOTA SAMARAHAN Malay Rural 23.31 75.32
198 MAMBONG Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 34.57 61.62
199 SERIAN Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 24.84 72.98
200 BATANG SADONG Malay Rural 13.85 85.25
201 BATANG LUPAR Malay Rural 23.49 75.16
202 SRI AMAN Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 26.91 53.99
203 LUBOK ANTU Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 17.45 54.66
204 BETONG Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 23.30 75.73
205 SARATOK Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 44.69 51.66
206 TANJONG MANIS Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 13.01 86.03
207 IGAN Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 13.45 85.39
208 SARIKEI Chinese Semi-Urban 52.16 47.33
209 JULAU Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 17.48 58.30
210 KANOWIT Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 36.93 58.46
211 LANANG Chinese Rural 61.17 38.57
212 SIBU Chinese Semi-Urban 55.10 43.89
213 MUKAH Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 12.94 74.70
214 SELANGAU Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 19.24 58.13
215 KAPIT Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 22.55 76.50
216 HULU RAJANG Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 22.31 62.24
217 BINTULU Bumiputera Sarawak Semi-Urban 42.59 56.85
218 SIBUTI Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 37.13 61.95
219 MIRI Chinese Semi-Urban 53.10 45.70
220 BARAM Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 49.14 48.40
221 LIMBANG Mixed Rural 30.89 68.68
222 LAWAS Bumiputera Sarawak Rural 30.34 68.49

 

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Written by politweet

April 16, 2016 at 9:12 pm

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