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Election Forecast for Pakatan Harapan in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14)

1. Introduction

On January 10th 2018 a detailed listing of the 165 seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Peninsular Malaysia was published in The Star and Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/408114). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:

  • 52 seats contested by PPBM
  • 51 seats contested by PKR
  • 35 seats contested by DAP
  • 27 seats contested by AMANAH

This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH, the winning odds and forecasted results for each seat under a number of different scenarios. Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, 2016 3rd Quarter (Q3) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

A copy of this report in PDF format can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view?usp=sharing

2. List of Acronyms

The following table shows a list of acronyms used in this document.

Acronym Full name
PR Pakatan Rakyat (coalition of PKR, DAP and PAS)
PH Pakatan Harapan (coalition of PKR, DAP and AMANAH)
BN Barisan Nasional
UMNO United Malays National Organisation
GERAKAN Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (also known as PGRM)
MCA Malaysian Chinese Association
MIC Malaysian Indian Congress
PBB Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak
PKR Parti Keadilan Rakyat
DAP Democratic Action Party
AMANAH Parti Amanah Negara
PAS Parti Islam Se-Malaysia
PPBM Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia
EC Election Commission of Malaysia
GE12 12th General Election (held in March 2008)
GE13 13th General Election (held in May 2013)

3. Methodology

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2013/05/05/predictions-for-malaysias-general-election-ge13-pru13/).

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated between different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, transferred voters, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. The majority of polling lanes contain between 350 – 700 voters.

How probabilities were assigned

  1. The ethnic composition of each polling lane was calculated. This was used to adjust the probability levels for individual voters.
  2. The polling lane result was used to generate a probability figure e.g. 60% of votes for BN and 40% of votes for PR means a base probability value of 60% pro-BN and 40% pro-PR is generated for all voters in that polling lane.
  3. The base probability was then adjusted based on the ethnic composition. This assumes voter turnout was evenly spread among all ethnic groups. For example:
    1. In a polling lane of 600 voters (assume 100% turnout), BN received 360 votes (60%)
    2. 420 voters (70%) of the voters are Malay and 180 voters (30%) are Chinese.
    3. That means BN received votes from at least 180 Malays and at most 360 Malays.
    4. 180/420 = 42.86% of Malays
    5. 360/420 = 85.71% of Malays
    6. BN received votes from 42.86% – 85.71% of Malay voters. This is the range of probability that Malay voters in that lane voted for BN. The average probability is a 64% chance of voting BN.
    7. For the 180 Chinese voters, BN did not need their vote. BN received votes from 0% – 100% of Chinese voters. This translates to an average probability of 50% chance of voting for BN. This also applies to the probability that they voted PR.
    8. For PR, they received 240 votes (40%). Based on the ethnic ratio, at least 60 Malays voted for PR.
    9. 60/420 = 14.29% of Malays
    10. 240/420 = 57.14% of Malays
    11. PR received votes from 14.29% – 57.14% of Malays. This translates to an average probability of 35.7% that Malay voters in that lane voted for PR.
    12. A non-racial method would assign a probability of 60% for BN and 40% for PR. By adjusting for race we identified the higher probability of Malays voting for BN and the higher probability of Chinese voting for PR (50% instead of 40%).
  4. Any voter belonging to a minority group small enough to not affect the polling lane result either way is also assigned a probability of 50%. For example, if 5% of a polling lane’s voters are of Race X and the rest are Race Y, and the result is 90% in favour of Party A, then voters of Race X are assigned a value of 50%.
  5. This race-based approach proved more accurate at identifying patterns and predicting results in elections.
  6. For individuals who previously voted in seats with 3-corner fights between PR component parties, all PR votes were treated as one party. If the result was 60% BN, 20% PAS and 20% DAP then the base probability for voters in that lane would be 60% BN and 20% PR.
  7. For seats where BN did not contest and it was a contest between PR and Independents, Independent results were treated as pro-BN results.
  8. Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% on voting BN/Opposition and categorised as a fence-sitter.
  9. Voting preferences and turnout rates for new voters are calculated based on averages from their peers – individuals with similar characteristics (age, race, location) in the electoral roll.

By calculating support and swing levels at the individual level we can address the impact of voter migration between seats; voters who have passed away; and new voters registered to vote since GE13.

Because individual voters have their own support and swing statistics, we can calculate the proportion of the electorate that is leaning towards Opposition (>50% probability of voting Opposition); leaning towards BN (<50% probability of voting PR); and on the fence (50% probability of voting Opposition). Voters who are leaning BN might still vote Opposition, so this metric is only an indicator of how good the odds are for the Opposition/BN to win support from the electorate.

To see previous applications of this method please read our previous reports at the following links:

 

How our method applies to redelineation

For constituency redelineation, the effect is the same as voter migration – constituencies, polling districts and localities may contain different groups of voters before and after redelineation.

Using these probabilities we simulated the electoral performance for Barisan Nasional and the Opposition before and after redelineation to get a sense of how the redrawing of constituency boundaries affected the election result.

4. Overview of Peninsular Malaysia Election Statistics

Total seats: 165

Total voters: 12,227,823

Net increase in voters: 1,050,081

New voters (since GE13): 1,530,764

Removed voters (since GE13): 480,683

The division of voters by ethnic group is shown in the chart below.

wp_forecastdec17_chart1

Division of Seats Won by Each Party in GE13

In GE13 PR won 89 seats while BN won 133 seats. In Peninsular Malaysia PR won 80 seats while BN won 85 seats.

Party Contested Won
BN 165 85
PKR 64 28
DAP 36 31
PAS 65 21

 

The breakdown of seats won by urban development category is shown in the table below:

Urban Development Category / Party DAP PKR PAS BN Total
Rural 2 2 11 66 81
Semi-Urban 10 14 6 14 44
Urban 19 12 4 5 40

 

Distribution of Voter Support

The chart below shows the distribution of voters based on their probability of voting for BN or Opposition at the Federal level.

A voter is categorised as Leaning Opposition if they have a >50% probability of voting for Opposition parties or is categorised as Leaning BN if they have a >50% probability of voting BN. Otherwise they are categorised as a Fence Sitter.

In GE13 44% of voters were leaning towards Opposition, 38% were leaning towards BN and 18% were on the fence.

As of 2017Q1 an estimated 44% of voters are leaning towards Opposition, 39% are leaning towards BN and 17% are on the fence. The only change is an increase of 1 point for BN while the Opposition’s share remains the same.

wp_forecastdec17_chart2

wp_forecastdec17_chart3

New Voters

The division of voters by estimated ethnic group is shown in the chart below.

wp_forecastdec17_chart4

When we look at the predicted leaning of new voters, 45% of the voters are leaning towards BN.

wp_forecastdec17_chart5

This is because of the high proportion of new Malay voters in areas that saw stronger support for BN in GE13.

In a previous report (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2015/07/27/analysing-pakatan-rakyats-performance-with-malay-voters-in-peninsular-malaysia-ge13/) we highlighted that Malay voters were starting to turn away from the Opposition in GE13 in many seats on a national scale. How this will impact GE14 will depend on how these new voters are distributed on a per-seat basis.

 

5. Overview of GE14 Contested Seats

The number of seats contested by each component party of PH is listed below.

Party GE13 GE14 Voters (2017Q1)
PPBM 52 2,990,177
PKR 64 51 4,312,054
DAP 36 35 2,790,945
AMANAH 27 2,134,647

 

wp_forecastdec17_chart6

 

The breakdown of seats contested by urban development category is shown in the table below:

Urban Development Category / Party Total PPBM PKR DAP AMANAH
Rural 81 44 14 6 17
Semi-Urban 44 6 23 10 5
Urban 40 2 14 19 5

 wp_forecastdec17_chart7

 

The breakdown of seats contested by ethnic majority is shown in the table below:

Ethnic Majority Seats PPBM PKR DAP AMANAH
Malay 115 51 37 2 25
Chinese 21 0 0 21 0
Mixed 29 1 14 12 2
Total 165 52 51 35 27

 wp_forecastdec17_chart8

 

The breakdown of voters in contested seats by ethnic group is shown in the table below:

Ethnic Group PPBM PKR DAP AMANAH
Malay / Muslim Bumiputera 2,453,185 2,578,487 809,990 1,588,267
Chinese 369,722 1,247,741 1,619,458 364,140
Indian 110,576 424,096 323,672 156,964
Other/Unknown 56,694 61,730 37,825 25,276
Total 2,990,177 4,312,054 2,790,945 2,134,647

 wp_forecastdec17_chart9

 

The composition of voters in contested seats by ethnic group on a party basis is shown in the following charts.

wp_forecastdec17_chart10wp_forecastdec17_chart11wp_forecastdec17_chart12wp_forecastdec17_chart13

Distribution of Voter Support

The table below shows the distribution of voters based on their probability of voting for BN or the Opposition.

Party Seats % Leaning BN
% Fence Sitters

 

% Leaning Opposition

 

PPBM 52 62 11 27
PKR 51 39 21 40
DAP 35 17 20 63
AMANAH 27 35 15 50

 

wp_forecastdec17_chart14wp_forecastdec17_chart15wp_forecastdec17_chart16wp_forecastdec17_chart17

PPBM is contesting rural, Malay-majority seats that would be challenging to win in a straight fight against BN. 35/52 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means PPBM will face an even greater challenge in a 3-corner fight with PAS.

PKR is contesting a mix of seats with a fairly even split between Opposition and BN leaning voters.

DAP is contesting mainly urban/semi-urban, Chinese-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters.

AMANAH is contesting mostly rural, Malay-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters. However 26/27 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means this large share of voters will be split between both Opposition parties.

If voter sentiment in GE14 remains the same as GE13, we can expect AMANAH and PPBM to win few seats.

6. How elections are simulated

To simulate an election, we take all the individual voters for a given constituency and run them through a process:

  1. Each individual will have a probability of turning out to vote; a probability of voting for BN; a probability of voting for the Opposition; and a probability of voting for an Independent/Third party.
  2. Our system will generate a random number to test if the voter turned out to vote.
  3. If he/she voted, then the system generates another random number to see which party they voted for.
  4. The result of the simulation is stored in a database
  5. We ran 300 simulations for each scenario, and use the average results. The winning odds for the seat is calculated as the percentage of winning scenarios.
  6. Any seat with a winning majority of 1 – 1,000 is classified as HIGH RISK
  7. Any seat with a winning majority of 1,001 – 2,000 is classified as MARGINAL RISK

In the simulations we ran for this report, we adjusted the probabilities to work for a straight fight between BN and the Opposition.

For each simulation we also tracked the ethnic divide of the vote e.g. how many Malay voters voted for BN. All simulations were run using the 2016Q3 electoral roll.

 

  1. Election Simulation Results

We ran 300 simulations per-seat for each scenario under the following conditions:

  • Straight fights between BN and a united Opposition
  • PAS was not included, any support for PAS is assumed to be ‘pro-Opposition’ support
  • No redelineation
  • Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
  • Average voter turnout rate based on GE13
  • The chance of winning a seat by a given party is based on the number of simulations where that party won the seat
  • The upper and lower bounds for results will be shown to give an idea of the best and worst-case scenarios for each coalition

The 3 scenarios tested were:

  • Scenario 1: Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
  • Scenario 2: +2 point increased support for the Opposition i.e. a voter with a 48% probability of voting Opposition would now have a 50% probability of voting Opposition
  • Scenario 3: +5 point increased support for the Opposition

The full results are listed in Appendix 2. A summary of the results is in the table below:

Party Scenario 1: GE13 Odds Scenario 2: PH +2pts Scenario 3: PH +5pts
BN 82 – 89 66 – 76 48 – 50
PH 76 – 83 89 – 99 115 – 117

 

Division of seats won by party

The table below shows the range of seats won by each party for each scenario.

Party Contested Seats Scenario 1: GE13 Odds Scenario 2: PH +2pts Scenario 3: PH+5 pts
PPBM 52 3 – 6 7 – 12 17 – 17
PKR 51 28 31 – 34 44 – 44
DAP 35 31 33 – 34 34 – 34
AMANAH 27 14 – 18 18 – 19 20 – 22

(seats won = seats won under simulations within a min-max range)

 

Seats At-Risk

The table below summarises the number of PH-won seats considered to be at-risk, based on the average of the winning majorities for each scenario. The number of seats won if all high-risk seats are lost is shown in the last column. The range for each category is based on the min/max number of seats won.

Scenario Seats Won Marginal Risk High Risk Total At-Risk Seats Won without
High Risk seats
(= Seats Won
– High Risk)
1: GE13 Odds 76 – 83 3 2 – 9 5 – 12 74
2: PH +2pts 89 – 99 8 2 – 12 10 – 20 87
3: PH +5pts 115 – 117 6 5– 7 11 – 13 110

(seats won = seats won under simulations within a min-max range)

 

8. Conclusion

wp_forecastdec17_chart18

In a straight fight against BN, PH can form the Federal government with a 5-point swing of support leading to a win of 115 seats. However a slim margin of 3 seats (112 seats is the minimum required) would not be enough for a stable government. A stronger swing of support and victories in East Malaysia would still be important for PH.

Due to the high risk seats, PH would need to target an additional 10 or more seats in East Malaysia. Given the performance of the Opposition in the Sarawak State elections in 2016 and the current state of the Opposition in Sabah, we can expect PH to face difficulty in winning 10 seats.

3-corner fights between PH, PAS and BN would most likely benefit BN. The only way for PH to overcome this is for their parties (particularly PPBM) to win over pro-BN supporters.

For example in a seat contested by PAS, PPBM and BN, if 10% of the anti-BN vote went to PAS, PPBM would need to counter that by getting >10% of the pro-BN vote. If PH is able to do this in 3-corner fights then the results of Scenario 3 (a 5-point swing to PH) can be achieved. This will lead to record victories for PH in Kedah and Johor, as well as control of the Federal government.

Another factor to consider is constituency redelineation, which has not been confirmed to take place before GE14. Through a separate set of simulations that we conducted, redelineation would improve the odds of BN winning the following 10 seats from the Opposition.

State Seat Code Name GE14 PH Contesting Party
TERENGGANU 35 KUALA NERUS AMANAH
PERAK 59 BUKIT GANTANG AMANAH
PERAK 74 LUMUT AMANAH
SELANGOR 101 HULU LANGAT AMANAH
SELANGOR 109 KAPAR PKR
SELANGOR 113 SEPANG AMANAH
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 121 LEMBAH PANTAI PKR
NEGERI SEMBILAN 132 TELOK KEMANG PKR
MELAKA 137 BUKIT KATIL PKR
JOHOR 150 BATU PAHAT PKR

 

Lastly we have to consider the declining interest in political parties on Facebook. The graph below shows the monthly proportion of potential voters on Facebook (users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above) who expressed interest in BN or Opposition parties on Facebook. This is calculated based on their profile information, Page likes, posts, shares and other activity on Facebook.

wp_forecastdec17_chart19

From our observations on Twitter using our database of profiled users in Malaysia, support expressed for Opposition parties has been weak. This would indicate that support from the youth will be a problem in GE14.

To summarise:

  • PPBM and AMANAH are contesting difficult seats to win a straight fight. With PAS splitting the vote, there will be few seats won by PPBM and AMANAH
  • The impact of PAS contesting against PH in 3-corner fights needs to be overcome by PH winning votes from pro-BN voters. Only then can PH make significant enough gains
  • PH still needs to win seats in East Malaysia to form a stable government even if they reduce the impact of votes going to PAS
  • Constituency redelineation will make it easier for BN to win more seats from PH
  • Low interest in political parties will make it harder for PH to spread their message through social media

 

A copy of this report in PDF format can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view?usp=sharing

9. Appendix 1: Peninsular Malaysia Seat Details

The table below lists the statistics and classification for each seat.

State Seat Code Name Voters (2017Q1) Ethnic Majority Urban Development Category GE13 Winner GE13 PR Contesting Party GE14 PH Contesting Party
PERLIS 1 PADANG BESAR 45336 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PERLIS 2 KANGAR 54449 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PAS PKR
PERLIS 3 ARAU 47102 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 4 LANGKAWI 40619 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
KEDAH 5 JERLUN 53470 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 6 KUBANG PASU 71348 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 7 PADANG TERAP 45428 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
KEDAH 8 POKOK SENA 87125 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
KEDAH 9 ALOR STAR 73157 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
KEDAH 10 KUALA KEDAH 99914 MALAY RURAL PKR PKR PKR
KEDAH 11 PENDANG 74091 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 12 JERAI 78938 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 13 SIK 49334 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
KEDAH 14 MERBOK 93260 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
KEDAH 15 SUNGAI PETANI 100394 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
KEDAH 16 BALING 104099 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KEDAH 17 PADANG SERAI 81134 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
KEDAH 18 KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU 64732 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
KELANTAN 19 TUMPAT 108510 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS PPBM
KELANTAN 20 PENGKALAN CHEPA 71826 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
KELANTAN 21 KOTA BHARU 87169 MALAY URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
KELANTAN 22 PASIR MAS 77170 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS PKR
KELANTAN 23 RANTAU PANJANG 57279 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
KELANTAN 24 KUBANG KERIAN 72250 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
KELANTAN 25 BACHOK 89923 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS PPBM
KELANTAN 26 KETEREH 70000 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
KELANTAN 27 TANAH MERAH 69755 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
KELANTAN 28 PASIR PUTEH 82905 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS PPBM
KELANTAN 29 MACHANG 67381 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
KELANTAN 30 JELI 47761 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
KELANTAN 31 KUALA KRAI 69259 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
KELANTAN 32 GUA MUSANG 45898 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
TERENGGANU 33 BESUT 83946 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PAS PPBM
TERENGGANU 34 SETIU 75980 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
TERENGGANU 35 KUALA NERUS 88644 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
TERENGGANU 36 KUALA TERENGGANU 101847 MALAY URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
TERENGGANU 37 MARANG 102554 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
TERENGGANU 38 HULU TERENGGANU 72035 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
TERENGGANU 39 DUNGUN 88346 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS PKR
TERENGGANU 40 KEMAMAN 105113 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
PULAU PINANG 41 KEPALA BATAS 58863 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
PULAU PINANG 42 TASEK GELUGOR 58883 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PULAU PINANG 43 BAGAN 71405 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 44 PERMATANG PAUH 80042 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PULAU PINANG 45 BUKIT MERTAJAM 86951 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 46 BATU KAWAN 63621 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 47 NIBONG TEBAL 68866 MIXED RURAL PKR PKR PKR
PULAU PINANG 48 BUKIT BENDERA 74638 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 49 TANJONG 50147 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 50 JELUTONG 76242 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 51 BUKIT GELUGOR 90528 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PULAU PINANG 52 BAYAN BARU 89177 MIXED SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PULAU PINANG 53 BALIK PULAU 57545 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
PERAK 54 GERIK 35602 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PERAK 55 LENGGONG 29392 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PERAK 56 LARUT 48826 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PERAK 57 PARIT BUNTAR 52657 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
PERAK 58 BAGAN SERAI 57777 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
PERAK 59 BUKIT GANTANG 77361 MALAY RURAL PAS PAS AMANAH
PERAK 60 TAIPING 81896 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 61 PADANG RENGAS 30583 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
PERAK 62 SUNGAI SIPUT 53611 MIXED SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PERAK 63 TAMBUN 100522 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PPBM
PERAK 64 IPOH TIMOR 81509 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 65 IPOH BARAT 79739 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 66 BATU GAJAH 86519 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 67 KUALA KANGSAR 36301 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PAS PPBM
PERAK 68 BERUAS 49740 CHINESE RURAL DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 69 PARIT 35260 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
PERAK 70 KAMPAR 65745 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 71 GOPENG 109108 MIXED SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PERAK 72 TAPAH 49657 MIXED RURAL BN PKR PPBM
PERAK 73 PASIR SALAK 54121 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
PERAK 74 LUMUT 95339 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR AMANAH
PERAK 75 BAGAN DATOK 44376 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
PERAK 76 TELOK INTAN 65155 MIXED SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
PERAK 77 TANJONG MALIM 67601 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
PAHANG 78 CAMERON HIGHLANDS 31369 MIXED RURAL BN DAP DAP
PAHANG 79 LIPIS 34327 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PAHANG 80 RAUB 56905 MALAY RURAL DAP DAP DAP
PAHANG 81 JERANTUT 61779 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PAHANG 82 INDERA MAHKOTA 73081 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PAHANG 83 KUANTAN 61032 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
PAHANG 84 PAYA BESAR 53397 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
PAHANG 85 PEKAN 86176 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
PAHANG 86 MARAN 40323 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PAHANG 87 KUALA KRAU 45705 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
PAHANG 88 TEMERLOH 72480 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
PAHANG 89 BENTONG 65910 MIXED RURAL BN DAP DAP
PAHANG 90 BERA 56442 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
PAHANG 91 ROMPIN 59669 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PKR
SELANGOR 92 SABAK BERNAM 40055 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
SELANGOR 93 SUNGAI BESAR 50488 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
SELANGOR 94 HULU SELANGOR 95736 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
SELANGOR 95 TANJONG KARANG 45794 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
SELANGOR 96 KUALA SELANGOR 70748 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
SELANGOR 97 SELAYANG 123023 MIXED SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 98 GOMBAK 136296 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 99 AMPANG 92487 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 100 PANDAN 94945 MIXED URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 101 HULU LANGAT 147186 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
SELANGOR 102 SERDANG 159404 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
SELANGOR 103 PUCHONG 122680 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
SELANGOR 104 KELANA JAYA 108315 MIXED URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 105 PETALING JAYA SELATAN 82930 MIXED URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 106 PETALING JAYA UTARA 86481 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
SELANGOR 107 SUBANG 146138 MIXED URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 108 SHAH ALAM 116137 MALAY URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
SELANGOR 109 KAPAR 163140 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 110 KLANG 104335 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
SELANGOR 111 KOTA RAJA 126080 MIXED URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
SELANGOR 112 KUALA LANGAT 98553 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
SELANGOR 113 SEPANG 98655 MALAY SEMI URBAN PAS PAS AMANAH
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 114 KEPONG 69577 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 115 BATU 85992 MIXED URBAN PKR PKR PKR
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 116 WANGSA MAJU 78450 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 117 SEGAMBUT 79767 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 118 SETIAWANGSA 68822 MALAY URBAN BN PKR PKR
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 119 TITIWANGSA 59677 MALAY URBAN BN PAS PPBM
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 120 BUKIT BINTANG 50739 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 121 LEMBAH PANTAI 78504 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 122 SEPUTEH 87815 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 123 CHERAS 72172 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
W.P KUALA LUMPUR 124 BANDAR TUN RAZAK 98593 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
W.P PUTRAJAYA 125 PUTRAJAYA 23908 MALAY URBAN BN PAS PPBM
NEGERI SEMBILAN 126 JELEBU 47262 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
NEGERI SEMBILAN 127 JEMPOL 70854 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
NEGERI SEMBILAN 128 SEREMBAN 112783 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
NEGERI SEMBILAN 129 KUALA PILAH 49195 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PPBM
NEGERI SEMBILAN 130 RASAH 96231 MIXED URBAN DAP DAP DAP
NEGERI SEMBILAN 131 REMBAU 85210 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
NEGERI SEMBILAN 132 TELOK KEMANG 72687 MIXED SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
NEGERI SEMBILAN 133 TAMPIN 60229 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
MELAKA 134 MASJID TANAH 50184 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
MELAKA 135 ALOR GAJAH 68899 MALAY RURAL BN DAP PPBM
MELAKA 136 TANGGA BATU 82270 MALAY SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
MELAKA 137 BUKIT KATIL 112248 MALAY URBAN PKR PKR PKR
MELAKA 138 KOTA MELAKA 96798 CHINESE URBAN DAP DAP DAP
MELAKA 139 JASIN 71915 MALAY RURAL BN PKR AMANAH
JOHOR 140 SEGAMAT 53027 MIXED RURAL BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 141 SEKIJANG 44667 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 142 LABIS 39838 MIXED RURAL BN DAP DAP
JOHOR 143 PAGOH 49585 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
JOHOR 144 LEDANG 75672 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 145 BAKRI 72073 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
JOHOR 146 MUAR 51626 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
JOHOR 147 PARIT SULONG 59314 MALAY RURAL BN PAS AMANAH
JOHOR 148 AYER HITAM 46114 MALAY RURAL BN PAS DAP
JOHOR 149 SRI GADING 49885 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
JOHOR 150 BATU PAHAT 96414 MALAY SEMI URBAN PKR PKR PKR
JOHOR 151 SIMPANG RENGGAM 42889 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
JOHOR 152 KLUANG 95280 MIXED SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
JOHOR 153 SEMBRONG 43509 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 154 MERSING 47882 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
JOHOR 155 TENGGARA 43730 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
JOHOR 156 KOTA TINGGI 46206 MALAY RURAL BN PAS PPBM
JOHOR 157 PENGERANG 39626 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
JOHOR 158 TEBRAU 116890 MIXED SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 159 PASIR GUDANG 119683 MIXED SEMI URBAN BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 160 JOHOR BAHRU 99296 MALAY URBAN BN PKR PKR
JOHOR 161 PULAI 112446 MIXED URBAN BN PAS AMANAH
JOHOR 162 GELANG PATAH 127039 MIXED SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
JOHOR 163 KULAI 93800 CHINESE SEMI URBAN DAP DAP DAP
JOHOR 164 PONTIAN 50927 MALAY RURAL BN PKR PPBM
JOHOR 165 TANJONG PIAI 56637 MALAY RURAL BN DAP PPBM

 

10. Appendix 2: Election Simulation Results

The table below lists the result of 300 election simulations performed for each seat using straight fights between BN and the Opposition. Based on the number of winning scenarios, we calculated the odds of winning the seat as a percentage. For example, P3.ARAU was won in 87% of the simulations for Scenario 2: PH +2pt Swing with a High Risk margin.

  1. Point Swing to PR refers to the percentage point shift in support for PR. Negative numbers means that support in the seat shifted to BN in GE13 while positive numbers means that the support shifted to PR.
  2. Avg (Odds of Voting Opposition) is an average probability that we calculate as a rough guideline. This is calculated as the sum of probabilities of individuals voting BN / Opposition for each seat divided by the number of voters. Any seat with a value below 50 would require a bigger positive swing to the Opposition to win.
  3. For each scenario we have 2 columns: the first shows the % probability of winning. If there is no value that means the seat was won by BN. The second column shows the risk factor – even a 100% chance of victory could be due to a small winning margin.
  4. Any seat with a winning majority of 1 – 1,000 votes is classified as HIGH RISK
  5. Any seat with a winning majority of 1,001 – 2,000 votes is classified as MARGINAL RISK

 

Seat Code Name GE14 PH Contesting Party Point Swing to PR (GE13) Avg (Odds of Voting Opposition) S1: GE13 Odds Risk Factor S2: PR +2pt Swing Risk Factor S3: PR +5pt Swing Risk Factor
1 PADANG BESAR PPBM -0.59 39.79
2 KANGAR PKR 14.09 45.49 100 High Risk
3 ARAU PPBM -0.91 47.38 87 High Risk 100
4 LANGKAWI PPBM -7.24 30.91
5 JERLUN PPBM -0.81 45.99
6 KUBANG PASU PPBM -1.07 41.46
7 PADANG TERAP AMANAH -7.07 43.88 13 High Risk
8 POKOK SENA AMANAH -2.68 52.53 100 100 100
9 ALOR STAR PKR 3.81 48.17 100 Marginal 100 100
10 KUALA KEDAH PKR -2.46 52.95 100 100 100
11 PENDANG PPBM -6.32 47.94 63 High Risk 100
12 JERAI PPBM -3.08 48.40 100 Marginal 100
13 SIK AMANAH -5.36 46.52 100 Marginal
14 MERBOK PKR -5.41 46.58 100
15 SUNGAI PETANI PKR -1.74 52.85 100 100 100
16 BALING PPBM -9.17 47.00 100
17 PADANG SERAI PKR -3.10 51.32 100 100 100
18 KULIM-BANDAR BAHARU PKR -8.90 47.12 100
19 TUMPAT PPBM -1.33 56.58 100 100 100
20 PENGKALAN CHEPA AMANAH 0.55 63.80 100 100 100
21 KOTA BHARU AMANAH 1.28 62.49 100 100 100
22 PASIR MAS PKR N/A 55.20 100 100 100
23 RANTAU PANJANG AMANAH 0.63 57.54 100 100 100
24 KUBANG KERIAN AMANAH 3.36 65.58 100 100 100
25 BACHOK PPBM -2.40 50.30 100 High Risk 100 100
26 KETEREH PPBM -1.71 49.31 1 High Risk 100 Marginal 100
27 TANAH MERAH PKR -8.56 45.61 100 Marginal
28 PASIR PUTEH PPBM -2.53 51.72 100 100 100
29 MACHANG PPBM -2.73 49.38 5 High Risk 100 Marginal 100
30 JELI PPBM -0.35 43.22
31 KUALA KRAI AMANAH -4.23 51.91 100 100 100
32 GUA MUSANG PPBM -3.22 37.89
33 BESUT PPBM 3.62 43.48
34 SETIU PPBM 0.84 43.25
35 KUALA NERUS AMANAH 1.30 50.59 100 Marginal 100 100
36 KUALA TERENGGANU AMANAH 6.99 56.59 100 100 100
37 MARANG AMANAH 1.38 53.28 100 100 100
38 HULU TERENGGANU PPBM 4.27 42.50
39 DUNGUN PKR 7.87 52.86 100 100 100
40 KEMAMAN PKR 2.59 42.56
41 KEPALA BATAS AMANAH 8.78 44.87 55 High Risk
42 TASEK GELUGOR PPBM 2.85 44.93 100 Marginal
43 BAGAN DAP 4.44 74.72 100 100 100
44 PERMATANG PAUH PKR -3.83 57.21 100 100 100
45 BUKIT MERTAJAM DAP 5.17 77.89 100 100 100
46 BATU KAWAN DAP 13.97 69.34 100 100 100
47 NIBONG TEBAL PKR 3.62 54.25 100 100 100
48 BUKIT BENDERA DAP 9.57 75.81 100 100 100
49 TANJONG DAP 8.83 82.47 100 100 100
50 JELUTONG DAP 3.64 69.72 100 100 100
51 BUKIT GELUGOR DAP 7.58 77.86 100 100 100
52 BAYAN BARU PKR 1.87 60.79 100 100 100
53 BALIK PULAU PKR -3.45 47.78 42 High Risk 100
54 GERIK PPBM 0.71 38.72
55 LENGGONG PPBM 5.82 41.10
56 LARUT PPBM -4.17 43.35
57 PARIT BUNTAR AMANAH -0.91 58.18 100 100 100
58 BAGAN SERAI PPBM -5.89 47.14 86 High Risk 100
59 BUKIT GANTANG AMANAH -2.43 50.04 73 High Risk 100 100
60 TAIPING DAP -2.57 57.67 100 100 100
61 PADANG RENGAS PKR -0.20 45.65 100 High Risk
62 SUNGAI SIPUT PKR -0.50 51.16 100 Marginal 100 100
63 TAMBUN PPBM -1.49 44.27
64 IPOH TIMOR DAP 5.65 75.32 100 100 100
65 IPOH BARAT DAP 6.87 71.28 100 100 100
66 BATU GAJAH DAP 5.44 75.56 100 100 100
67 KUALA KANGSAR PPBM 1.24 46.53 100 Marginal
68 BERUAS DAP 3.33 55.79 100 100 100
69 PARIT AMANAH -2.16 42.45
70 KAMPAR DAP 8.33 55.60 100 100 100
71 GOPENG PKR 2.78 58.03 100 100 100
72 TAPAH PPBM -2.06 39.16
73 PASIR SALAK PPBM -4.70 41.17
74 LUMUT AMANAH 2.29 53.57 100 100 100
75 BAGAN DATOK PKR 1.14 45.58 100 High Risk
76 TELOK INTAN DAP 4.55 54.74 100 100 100
77 TANJONG MALIM PKR 1.46 45.54 100 High Risk
78 CAMERON HIGHLANDS DAP 9.57 45.75 1 High Risk 100 Marginal
79 LIPIS PPBM 2.67 43.32
80 RAUB DAP 6.51 52.02 100 100 100
81 JERANTUT PPBM -2.20 45.39 100 High Risk
82 INDERA MAHKOTA PKR 5.08 55.98 100 100 100
83 KUANTAN PKR 2.09 53.75 100 100 100
84 PAYA BESAR PPBM 4.27 40.16
85 PEKAN PPBM 0.73 24.31
86 MARAN PPBM 2.39 40.15
87 KUALA KRAU PPBM 0.25 41.83
88 TEMERLOH AMANAH 3.09 50.02 85 High Risk 100 100
89 BENTONG DAP 12.83 49.18 100 Marginal 100
90 BERA PKR 5.38 46.30 100
91 ROMPIN PKR -0.40 33.55
92 SABAK BERNAM PPBM -1.11 46.61 100 Marginal
93 SUNGAI BESAR PPBM 7.24 48.92 2 High Risk 100 Marginal 100
94 HULU SELANGOR PKR -2.32 45.65 100
95 TANJONG KARANG PPBM 0.79 43.25
96 KUALA SELANGOR AMANAH -1.60 49.05 1 High Risk 100 Marginal 100
97 SELAYANG PKR 5.45 54.02 100 100 100
98 GOMBAK PKR -2.14 51.24 100 100 100
99 AMPANG PKR 4.82 57.36 100 100 100
100 PANDAN PKR 18.92 64.07 100 100 100
101 HULU LANGAT AMANAH 4.88 55.54 100 100 100
102 SERDANG DAP 4.84 64.30 100 100 100
103 PUCHONG DAP 4.76 62.72 100 100 100
104 KELANA JAYA PKR 7.54 61.95 100 100 100
105 PETALING JAYA SELATAN PKR 8.91 60.57 100 100 100
106 PETALING JAYA UTARA DAP 12.30 79.34 100 100 100
107 SUBANG PKR 6.69 58.23 100 100 100
108 SHAH ALAM AMANAH -1.17 54.82 100 100 100
109 KAPAR PKR 4.53 53.19 100 100 100
110 KLANG DAP 0.99 60.22 100 100 100
111 KOTA RAJA AMANAH -0.10 59.09 100 100 100
112 KUALA LANGAT PKR 2.25 51.45 100 100 100
113 SEPANG AMANAH 4.46 48.77 61 High Risk 100 100
114 KEPONG DAP 11.64 81.70 100 100 100
115 BATU PKR 0.82 56.59 100 100 100
116 WANGSA MAJU PKR 2.92 52.86 100 100 100
117 SEGAMBUT DAP 4.88 63.52 100 100 100
118 SETIAWANGSA PKR 1.63 46.00 100 Marginal
119 TITIWANGSA PPBM -3.16 47.95 22 High Risk 100
120 BUKIT BINTANG DAP 3.81 73.36 100 100 100
121 LEMBAH PANTAI PKR -1.89 47.90 8 High Risk 100
122 SEPUTEH DAP 4.34 85.07 100 100 100
123 CHERAS DAP 3.82 80.35 100 100 100
124 BANDAR TUN RAZAK PKR 4.21 55.23 100 100 100
125 PUTRAJAYA PPBM -3.03 34.99
126 JELEBU AMANAH 9.03 40.91
127 JEMPOL PPBM 7.97 41.49
128 SEREMBAN DAP 7.62 51.72 100 100 100
129 KUALA PILAH PPBM 2.49 38.06
130 RASAH DAP 3.84 60.66 100 100 100
131 REMBAU PKR -7.36 36.59
132 TELOK KEMANG PKR -3.13 49.51 100 Marginal 100
133 TAMPIN AMANAH 3.76 37.12
134 MASJID TANAH PPBM -2.05 29.78
135 ALOR GAJAH PPBM 3.15 39.20
136 TANGGA BATU PKR 0.05 38.27
137 BUKIT KATIL PKR 3.40 51.86 100 100 100
138 KOTA MELAKA DAP 5.68 61.51 100 100 100
139 JASIN AMANAH 2.97 39.60
140 SEGAMAT PKR 4.82 48.40 100 High Risk 100
141 SEKIJANG PKR 12.18 44.42
142 LABIS DAP 5.70 48.82 100 High Risk 100
143 PAGOH PPBM 4.41 34.34
144 LEDANG PKR 5.69 47.58 42 High Risk 100
145 BAKRI DAP 2.63 53.74 100 100 100
146 MUAR PPBM 4.98 47.78 74 High Risk 100
147 PARIT SULONG AMANAH 5.01 37.71
148 AYER HITAM DAP 14.24 40.46
149 SRI GADING PPBM 9.97 43.00
150 BATU PAHAT PKR 11.67 50.09 100 High Risk 100 100
151 SIMPANG RENGGAM PPBM 4.72 40.92
152 KLUANG DAP 6.34 53.49 100 100 100
153 SEMBRONG PKR 8.02 35.38
154 MERSING PPBM 3.95 29.27
155 TENGGARA PPBM -0.93 26.25
156 KOTA TINGGI PPBM 1.91 16.48
157 PENGERANG PPBM -22.81 14.24
158 TEBRAU PKR 14.74 52.34 100 100 100
159 PASIR GUDANG PKR 10.80 48.35 100 Marginal 100
160 JOHOR BAHRU PKR 13.01 43.53
161 PULAI AMANAH 12.22 47.79 98 High Risk 100
162 GELANG PATAH DAP 11.38 55.23 100 100 100
163 KULAI DAP 17.16 57.23 100 100 100
164 PONTIAN PPBM 5.94 33.45
165 TANJONG PIAI PPBM 10.74 43.57

 

 

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Written by politweet

January 16, 2018 at 10:00 am

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