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Winning Odds for Pakatan Harapan in Johor (GE14)

1. Introduction

On January 20th 2018 a detailed listing of the 56 state seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Johor was published by Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/409412). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:

  • 18 seats contested by PPBM
  • 12 seats contested by PKR
  • 14 seats contested by DAP
  • 12 seats contested by AMANAH

This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH and the winning odds for each seat. Detailed election forecast results are not available at the moment due to the cost involved in running simulations, however the winning odds will give a rough idea of the swing in support that PH needs to win control of the state.

Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

A PDF copy of this report can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zYr2-a3KlYJ_msfEqaeze4FrKrqWOeSC/view?usp=sharing

2. List of Acronyms

The following table shows a list of acronyms used in this document.

Acronym Full name
PR Pakatan Rakyat (coalition of PKR, DAP and PAS)
PH Pakatan Harapan (coalition of PKR, DAP and AMANAH)
BN Barisan Nasional
UMNO United Malays National Organisation
GERAKAN Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (also known as PGRM)
MCA Malaysian Chinese Association
MIC Malaysian Indian Congress
PBB Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu Sarawak
PKR Parti Keadilan Rakyat
DAP Democratic Action Party
AMANAH Parti Amanah Negara
PAS Parti Islam Se-Malaysia
PPBM Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia
EC Election Commission of Malaysia
GE12 12th General Election (held in March 2008)
GE13 13th General Election (held in May 2013)

3. Methodology

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections (https://politweet.wordpress.com/2013/05/05/predictions-for-malaysias-general-election-ge13-pru13/).

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated between different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, transferred voters, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. The majority of polling lanes contain between 350 – 700 voters.

How probabilities were assigned

  1. The ethnic composition of each polling lane was calculated. This was used to adjust the probability levels for individual voters.
  2. The polling lane result was used to generate a probability figure e.g. 60% of votes for BN and 40% of votes for PR means a base probability value of 60% pro-BN and 40% pro-PR is generated for all voters in that polling lane.
  3. The base probability was then adjusted based on the ethnic composition. This assumes voter turnout was evenly spread among all ethnic groups. For example:
    1. In a polling lane of 600 voters (assume 100% turnout), BN received 360 votes (60%)
    2. 420 voters (70%) of the voters are Malay and 180 voters (30%) are Chinese.
    3. That means BN received votes from at least 180 Malays and at most 360 Malays.
    4. 180/420 = 42.86% of Malays
    5. 360/420 = 85.71% of Malays
    6. BN received votes from 42.86% – 85.71% of Malay voters. This is the range of probability that Malay voters in that lane voted for BN. The average probability is a 64% chance of voting BN.
    7. For the 180 Chinese voters, BN did not need their vote. BN received votes from 0% – 100% of Chinese voters. This translates to an average probability of 50% chance of voting for BN. This also applies to the probability that they voted PR.
    8. For PR, they received 240 votes (40%). Based on the ethnic ratio, at least 60 Malays voted for PR.
    9. 60/420 = 14.29% of Malays
    10. 240/420 = 57.14% of Malays
    11. PR received votes from 14.29% – 57.14% of Malays. This translates to an average probability of 35.7% that Malay voters in that lane voted for PR.
    12. A non-racial method would assign a probability of 60% for BN and 40% for PR. By adjusting for race we identified the higher probability of Malays voting for BN and the higher probability of Chinese voting for PR (50% instead of 40%).
  4. Any voter belonging to a minority group small enough to not affect the polling lane result either way is also assigned a probability of 50%. For example, if 5% of a polling lane’s voters are of Race X and the rest are Race Y, and the result is 90% in favour of Party A, then voters of Race X are assigned a value of 50%.
  5. This race-based approach proved more accurate at identifying patterns and predicting results in elections.
  6. For individuals who previously voted in seats with 3-corner fights between PR component parties, all PR votes were treated as one party. If the result was 60% BN, 20% PAS and 20% DAP then the base probability for voters in that lane would be 60% BN and 20% PR.
  7. For seats where BN did not contest and it was a contest between PR and Independents, Independent results were treated as pro-BN results.
  8. Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% on voting BN/Opposition and categorised as a fence-sitter.
  9. Voting preferences and turnout rates for new voters are calculated based on averages from their peers – individuals with similar characteristics (age, race, location) in the electoral roll.

By calculating support and swing levels at the individual level we can address the impact of voter migration between seats; voters who have passed away; and new voters registered to vote since GE13.

Because individual voters have their own support and swing statistics, we can calculate the proportion of the electorate that is leaning towards Opposition (>50% probability of voting Opposition); leaning towards BN (<50% probability of voting Opposition); and on the fence (50% probability of voting Opposition). Voters who are leaning BN might still vote Opposition, so this metric is only an indicator of how good the odds are for the Opposition/BN to win support from the electorate.

To see previous applications of this method please read our previous reports at the following links:

 

How Our Method Applies to State Elections

Our probabilities are calculated based on General Election results at the Federal level. They are not accurate at the State level in seats that exhibited split voting (where voters chose different coalitions at Federal and State level). Split voting was not significant enough to have overturned the winning majorities at the Federal level.

4. Overview of Johor Election Statistics

Total seats: 56

Total voters: 1,774,055

Net increase in voters: 168,744

New voters (since GE13): 235,733

Removed voters (since GE13): 66,989

Transferred-in voters (who voted in other states in GE13): 17,913

The division of voters by ethnic group is shown in the chart below.

wp_johorjan22_chart1

Division of Seats Won by Each Party in GE13

In GE13 PR won 89 seats while BN won 133 seats. In Peninsular Malaysia PR won 80 seats while BN won 85 seats.

Party Contested Won
BN 165 85
PKR 64 28
DAP 36 31
PAS 65 21

 

The breakdown of seats won by urban development category is shown in the table below:

Urban Development Category / Party DAP PKR PAS BN Total
Rural 2 2 11 66 81
Semi-Urban 10 14 6 14 44
Urban 19 12 4 5 40

 

New Voters

The division of voters by estimated ethnic group is shown in the chart below.

wp_johorjan22_chart2

 

5. Overview of GE14 Contested Seats

The number of seats contested by each component party of PH is listed below.

Party GE14 Voters (2017Q1)
PPBM 18 536,975
PKR 12 308,457
DAP 14 558,914
AMANAH 12 369,709

 

wp_johorjan22_chart3wp_johorjan22_chart4

The breakdown of seats contested by ethnic majority is shown in the table below:

Ethnic Majority Seats PPBM PKR DAP AMANAH
Malay 39 16 11 0 12
Chinese 11 0 1 10 0
Mixed 6 2 0 4 0
Total 56 18 12 14 12

 

wp_johorjan22_chart5

The breakdown of voters in contested seats by ethnic group is shown in the table below:

Ethnic Group PPBM PKR DAP AMANAH
Malay / Muslim Bumiputera 343,298 208,990 197,016 223,714
Chinese 153,355 82,408 308,552 125,314
Indian 34,372 14,420 47,306 16,806
Other/Unknown 5,950 2,639 6,040 3,875
Total 536,975 308,457 558,914 369,709

 

wp_johorjan22_chart6

The composition of voters in contested seats by ethnic group on a party basis is shown in the following charts.

wp_johorjan22_chart7

wp_johorjan22_chart8

wp_johorjan22_chart9

wp_johorjan22_chart10

 

6. Political Facebook Interest in Johor

The table below shows the number of Facebook users interested in major political parties in Johor, aged 21 years and above. This is calculated based on their profile information, Page likes, posts, shares and other activity on Facebook. The number of users is considered to be the ‘audience’ or user-base for each party/politician. For comparison we have included Tun Mahathir and PM Najib. One common pattern is that DAP, PKR and PAS all have a user-base that is >70% male.

Party/Politician Total Male Female Male (%) Female (%)
UMNO 460,000 270,000 190,000 58.70 41.30
DAP 160,000 120,000 48,000 75.00 25.00
PKR 180,000 130,000 49,000 72.22 27.78
PAS 46,000 33,000 12,000 71.74 28.26
Tun Mahathir 180,000 120,000 57,000 66.67 33.33
PM Najib 460,000 280,000 180,000 60.87 39.13

 

The following charts show how interest in UMNO, PKR and PAS is divided among users aged 21 years and above residing in Johor. This allows us to measure the size of overlapping audiences between parties, for every combination. Exclusive interest in a party or combination of parties means those users do not show exclusive interest in the other parties and combinations of parties.

wp_johorjan22_chart11

wp_johorjan22_chart12

We calculated these figures to get a sense of how interest is divided between parties with the best appeal to the Malay electorate. From these charts we can observe that PAS has little influence in Johor on Facebook and UMNO dominates both in terms of conversation and Page likes. Women also have very little interest in PKR and PAS.

Facebook currently does not make statistics for PPBM or AMANAH available. This is usually an indicator that interest is too low. However we can test for Tun Mahathir’s reach for users in Johor.

If we combine interest in Tun Mahathir with PKR and measure the divide, UMNO still retains the largest exclusive share in Johor.

wp_johorjan22_chart13

Compared to the previous chart, PAS’ exclusive share is 0% because all of those users were interested in Tun Mahathir.

Out of the 460 thousand users in Johor who are interested in UMNO, PKR on its own can reach 30.4%. PKR and Tun Mahathir combined can reach 45.7%. This still leaves 250 thousand potential Johor voters on Facebook who are only interested in UMNO.

Another issue that should concern both BN and Opposition parties is that only 25.45% of the total 2.2 million potential voters in Johor on Facebook have interest in UMNO, PKR, PAS or Tun Mahathir. Both sides will have issues campaigning on Facebook though UMNO will have the advantage of a larger base of users and a greater proportion of women in its audience.

7. Using Average Support Values to Estimate Winning Odds

For each voter we have calculated the odds of them voting for Opposition or BN as a percentage between 0% – 100%. To simulate an election, we would take all the individual voters for a given constituency and run them through a process to get detailed election results for each seat.

However in this case we are only looking at the basic odds of winning the seat in a straight fight. To do this we calculated the average the average support for BN and the Opposition. This is calculated as the sum of probabilities of individuals voting BN / Opposition for each seat divided by the number of voters. This gives us the ‘Average Odds of Voting Opposition’ that we can use to work out the number of winning seats.

From our experience running simulations at the Federal level:

  • Any seat with an average support of 52% and above is a safe seat
  • Seats with an average support value of 49% and above is winnable though the margin would be very slim if it is below 51%
  • Seats with an average support value below 49% would require a minimum swing in support for PH to win:
    • 47% to <49% would require a +2 point swing to PH
    • 44% to <47% would require a +5 point swing to PH
    • 40% to <44% would require a +10 point swing to PH

Between 2013 and 2017Q1, the seat demographics have changed due to new voter registrations, deleted voters and voters transferred in or out. This has shifted the odds towards or away from the Opposition.

The most significant changes in averaged support levels for the Opposition occurred in the following seats:

  • Support has dropped by 2.97 points in N12.BENTAYAN (won by DAP in GE13). DAP is still expected to win in GE14 as the average support value of BENTAYAN is 63%
  • Support has dropped by 2.84 points in N3.PEMANIS (won by BN in GE13). PKR will have a challenge winning the seat as the average support value is now 43%
  • Support has increased by 1.11 points in N46.PENGKALAN RINTING (won by DAP in GE13). It is still not a safe seat as the support level is now 50.81%
  • Support has increased by 1.74 points in N50. BUKIT PERMAI (won by BN in GE13). It remains a challenging seat for PPBM as the average support value is now 41.6%
  • Support has increased by 2.67 points in N56. KUKUP (won by BN in GE13). It remains a very challenging seat for AMANAH as the average support value is now 31%

 

8. Evaluating Winning Scenarios for PH

We used the average support values for each seat to evaluate the odds of PH winning under the following conditions for 4 scenarios:

  • Straight fights between BN and a united Opposition
  • PAS was not included, any support for PAS is assumed to be ‘pro-Opposition’ support
  • No redelineation
  • Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
  • Average voter turnout rate based on GE13
  • Because we are using averaged support levels, only the best-case scenario results were calculated. This includes seats won with slim majorities

The 4 scenarios tested were:

  • Scenario 1: Voter sentiment unchanged since GE13
  • Scenario 2: +2 point increase in support for the Opposition i.e. a voter with a 48% probability of voting Opposition would now have a 50% probability of voting Opposition
  • Scenario 3: +5 point increase in support for the Opposition
  • Scenario 4: +10 point increase in support for the Opposition

 

29 seats are needed to win control of the state government. The full results are listed in Appendix 2. A summary of the results is in the table below:

Party Scenario 1: GE13 Odds Scenario 2: PH +2pts Scenario 3: PH +5pts Scenario 4: PH +10pts
BN 38 37 29 20
PH 18 19 27 36

 

Division of seats won by party

The table below shows the range of seats won by each party for each scenario.

Party Contested Seats Scenario 1: GE13 Odds Scenario 2:
PH +2pts
Scenario 3: PH +5pts Scenario 4: PH +10pts
PPBM 18 0 1 4 7
PKR 12 2 2 3 7
DAP 14 13 13 14 14
AMANAH 12 3 3 6 8

(seats won = maximum possible seats won)

 

9. Conclusion

wp_johorjan22_chart14

In a straight fight against BN, PH can form the state government with a 10-point swing of support leading to a win of 36 seats.

3-corner fights between PH, PAS and BN would most likely benefit BN. The only way for PH to overcome this is for their parties to win over pro-BN supporters.

For example in a seat contested by PAS, PPBM and BN, if 10% of the anti-BN vote went to PAS, PPBM would need to counter that by getting >10% of the pro-BN vote. If PH is able to do this in 3-corner fights then the results of Scenario 4 (a 10-point swing to PH) can be achieved.

Getting Malay voters to switch from BN to PH will be challenging. From our observations on Twitter since 2015, young Malays (aged 21-30 years) in Johor are more likely to express support for UMNO compared to young Malays in other states.

To summarise:

  • PPBM and PKR are contesting the most difficult seats to win a straight fight
  • The impact of PAS contesting against PH in 3-corner fights needs to be overcome by PH winning votes from pro-BN voters
  • Our estimates on the number of seats won are ‘best-case’ scenarios based on a simple formula instead of election simulations. Simulations would be more accurate and reliable.
  • PH likely needs to target more than a 10-point swing to win Johor in addition to neutralising the effect of PAS by winning over pro-BN voters
  • UMNO has a large share of exclusive interest on Facebook, making it more difficult for PH and Tun Mahathir to spread their message
  • UMNO and PM Najib draw more interest from women compared to the Opposition parties and Tun Mahathir

 

A PDF copy of this report can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zYr2-a3KlYJ_msfEqaeze4FrKrqWOeSC/view?usp=sharing

10. Appendix 1: Johor State Seat Details

The table below lists the statistics and classification for each state seat (DUN).

Parliament Seat Code Parliament State Seat Code Dun Name Voters (2017Q1) Majority Ethnic Group Malay (%) Chinese (%) Indian (%) GE13 Winner GE14 PH Contesting Party Avg (Odds of Voting for Opposition)
140 SEGAMAT 1 BULOH KASAP 20941 MALAY 56.78 30.35 12.42 BN PPBM 38.22
140 SEGAMAT 2 JEMENTAH 32086 CHINESE 37.90 53.27 8.29 DAP DAP 55.04
141 SEKIJANG 3 PEMANIS 21939 MALAY 63.04 33.55 3.05 BN PKR 43.24
141 SEKIJANG 4 KEMELAH 22728 MALAY 55.62 38.53 5.22 BN AMANAH 45.56
142 LABIS 5 TENANG 19048 MIXED 49.11 38.81 10.60 BN PPBM 44.23
142 LABIS 6 BEKOK 20790 CHINESE 28.52 51.33 17.70 DAP DAP 53.02
143 PAGOH 7 BUKIT SERAMPANG 22399 MALAY 72.52 24.80 1.84 BN PPBM 27.99
143 PAGOH 8 JORAK 27186 MALAY 60.99 33.50 5.24 BN PPBM 39.56
144 LEDANG 9 GAMBIR 23152 MALAY 59.03 37.19 3.50 BN PPBM 44.08
144 LEDANG 10 TANGKAK 25646 MIXED 40.39 49.20 9.20 DAP DAP 55.37
144 LEDANG 11 SEROM 26874 MALAY 67.86 30.98 0.85 BN AMANAH 43.14
145 BAKRI 12 BENTAYAN 30217 CHINESE 29.80 67.61 2.13 DAP DAP 63.08
145 BAKRI 13 SUNGAI ABONG 24136 MALAY 51.82 44.61 2.78 PAS AMANAH 51.09
145 BAKRI 14 BUKIT NANING 17720 MALAY 61.90 36.50 1.06 BN PKR 41.40
146 MUAR 15 MAHARANI 29231 MALAY 56.58 40.50 2.25 PAS AMANAH 52.66
146 MUAR 16 SUNGAI BALANG 22395 MALAY 73.32 26.27 0.18 BN PKR 41.42
147 PARIT SULONG 17 SEMERAH 31379 MALAY 67.20 31.85 0.64 BN PKR 45.02
147 PARIT SULONG 18 SRI MEDAN 27935 MALAY 90.15 9.28 0.32 BN PPBM 29.49
148 AYER HITAM 19 YONG PENG 24402 CHINESE 33.54 59.59 6.50 DAP DAP 52.88
148 AYER HITAM 20 SEMARANG 21712 MALAY 85.16 13.76 0.85 BN PPBM 26.50
149 SRI GADING 21 PARIT YAANI 26899 MALAY 55.31 43.30 0.98 PAS AMANAH 49.57
149 SRI GADING 22 PARIT RAJA 22986 MALAY 76.56 21.58 1.57 BN PPBM 35.30
150 BATU PAHAT 23 PENGGARAM 48599 CHINESE 37.13 60.02 2.21 DAP DAP 61.66
150 BATU PAHAT 24 SENGGARANG 26978 MALAY 64.31 34.76 0.54 BN AMANAH 42.41
150 BATU PAHAT 25 RENGIT 20837 MALAY 82.78 16.67 0.25 BN PKR 33.05
151 SIMPANG RENGGAM 26 MACHAP 23622 MALAY 65.36 29.32 4.94 BN PPBM 40.11
151 SIMPANG RENGGAM 27 LAYANG-LAYANG 19267 MALAY 52.73 32.76 13.89 BN PKR 41.92
152 KLUANG 28 MENGKIBOL 44807 CHINESE 28.47 57.96 13.10 DAP DAP 61.40
152 KLUANG 29 MAHKOTA 50473 MALAY 52.94 39.06 5.75 BN AMANAH 46.48
153 SEMBRONG 30 PALOH 18657 MIXED 39.56 42.32 16.85 BN DAP 46.94
153 SEMBRONG 31 KAHANG 24852 MALAY 76.13 19.85 2.57 BN PPBM 26.71
154 MERSING 32 ENDAU 20550 MALAY 77.76 17.88 0.94 BN PPBM 39.02
154 MERSING 33 TENGGAROH 27332 MALAY 83.89 12.04 1.60 BN PKR 21.94
155 TENGGARA 34 PANTI 18757 MALAY 89.01 6.20 3.42 BN PPBM 17.46
155 TENGGARA 35 PASIR RAJA 24973 MALAY 64.44 23.71 8.69 BN AMANAH 32.85
156 KOTA TINGGI 36 SEDILI 27708 MALAY 97.21 1.75 0.71 BN PKR 9.51
156 KOTA TINGGI 37 JOHOR LAMA 18498 MALAY 74.72 21.22 3.62 BN PKR 26.92
157 PENGERANG 38 PENAWAR 21148 MALAY 98.39 0.34 0.76 BN AMANAH 10.29
157 PENGERANG 39 TANJONG SURAT 18478 MALAY 79.36 19.21 0.77 BN PKR 18.76
158 TEBRAU 40 TIRAM 57917 MALAY 56.82 28.67 12.76 BN PKR 56.30
158 TEBRAU 41 PUTERI WANGSA 58973 MIXED 38.82 49.84 10.31 PAS PPBM 48.46
159 PASIR GUDANG 42 JOHOR JAYA 59379 MIXED 43.68 46.68 7.13 DAP DAP 51.53
159 PASIR GUDANG 43 PERMAS 60304 MALAY 55.90 27.23 13.51 BN PPBM 45.22
160 JOHOR BAHRU 44 TANJONG PUTERI 53704 MALAY 63.78 30.17 5.27 BN PPBM 37.28
160 JOHOR BAHRU 45 STULANG 45592 CHINESE 39.90 54.55 4.47 DAP DAP 50.90
161 PULAI 46 PENGKALAN RINTING 69873 MIXED 42.24 45.33 10.93 DAP DAP 50.81
161 PULAI 47 KEMPAS 42573 MALAY 56.72 33.42 8.94 BN PPBM 42.84
162 GELANG PATAH 48 SKUDAI 61545 CHINESE 23.30 64.07 11.75 DAP DAP 64.93
162 GELANG PATAH 49 NUSA JAYA 65494 MALAY 51.68 35.19 11.90 BN AMANAH 46.11
163 KULAI 50 BUKIT PERMAI 25614 MALAY 53.38 34.59 11.42 BN PPBM 41.61
163 KULAI 51 BUKIT BATU 24987 CHINESE 32.10 60.28 7.03 PKR PKR 60.83
163 KULAI 52 SENAI 43199 CHINESE 24.65 63.55 11.01 DAP DAP 64.41
164 PONTIAN 53 BENUT 22667 MALAY 81.96 17.64 0.17 BN PPBM 28.28
164 PONTIAN 54 PULAI SEBATANG 28260 MALAY 65.22 32.98 1.41 BN AMANAH 37.60
165 TANJONG PIAI 55 PEKAN NENAS 34122 CHINESE 42.68 55.74 1.15 DAP DAP 51.75
165 TANJONG PIAI 56 KUKUP 22515 MALAY 69.58 28.99 1.02 BN AMANAH 31.18

 

11. Appendix 2: Winning Scenario Results

The table below lists the seats won by each party based on the scenarios given. If it is possible for a seat to be won under a scenario, ‘YES’ will be stated in the corresponding column. Please bear in mind that these are best-case estimates, with no indication of the size of the winning majority.

 

Parliament Seat Code Parliament State Seat Code DUN GE13 Winner GE14 PH Contesting Party Avg (Odds of Voting for Opposition S1: GE13 Odds S2: PR +2pt Swing S3: PR +5pt Swing S4: PR +10pt Swing
140 SEGAMAT 1 BULOH KASAP BN PPBM 38.22
140 SEGAMAT 2 JEMENTAH DAP DAP 55.04 YES YES YES YES
141 SEKIJANG 3 PEMANIS BN PKR 43.24 YES
141 SEKIJANG 4 KEMELAH BN AMANAH 45.56 YES YES
142 LABIS 5 TENANG BN PPBM 44.23 YES YES
142 LABIS 6 BEKOK DAP DAP 53.02 YES YES YES YES
143 PAGOH 7 BUKIT SERAMPANG BN PPBM 27.99
143 PAGOH 8 JORAK BN PPBM 39.56
144 LEDANG 9 GAMBIR BN PPBM 44.08 YES YES
144 LEDANG 10 TANGKAK DAP DAP 55.37 YES YES YES YES
144 LEDANG 11 SEROM BN AMANAH 43.14 YES
145 BAKRI 12 BENTAYAN DAP DAP 63.08 YES YES YES YES
145 BAKRI 13 SUNGAI ABONG PAS AMANAH 51.09 YES YES YES YES
145 BAKRI 14 BUKIT NANING BN PKR 41.40 YES
146 MUAR 15 MAHARANI PAS AMANAH 52.66 YES YES YES YES
146 MUAR 16 SUNGAI BALANG BN PKR 41.42 YES
147 PARIT SULONG 17 SEMERAH BN PKR 45.02 YES YES
147 PARIT SULONG 18 SRI MEDAN BN PPBM 29.49
148 AYER HITAM 19 YONG PENG DAP DAP 52.88 YES YES YES YES
148 AYER HITAM 20 SEMARANG BN PPBM 26.50
149 SRI GADING 21 PARIT YAANI PAS AMANAH 49.57 YES YES YES YES
149 SRI GADING 22 PARIT RAJA BN PPBM 35.30
150 BATU PAHAT 23 PENGGARAM DAP DAP 61.66 YES YES YES YES
150 BATU PAHAT 24 SENGGARANG BN AMANAH 42.41 YES
150 BATU PAHAT 25 RENGIT BN PKR 33.05
151 SIMPANG RENGGAM 26 MACHAP BN PPBM 40.11 YES
151 SIMPANG RENGGAM 27 LAYANG-LAYANG BN PKR 41.92 YES
152 KLUANG 28 MENGKIBOL DAP DAP 61.40 YES YES YES YES
152 KLUANG 29 MAHKOTA BN AMANAH 46.48 YES YES
153 SEMBRONG 30 PALOH BN DAP 46.94 YES YES
153 SEMBRONG 31 KAHANG BN PPBM 26.71
154 MERSING 32 ENDAU BN PPBM 39.02
154 MERSING 33 TENGGAROH BN PKR 21.94
155 TENGGARA 34 PANTI BN PPBM 17.46
155 TENGGARA 35 PASIR RAJA BN AMANAH 32.85
156 KOTA TINGGI 36 SEDILI BN PKR 9.51
156 KOTA TINGGI 37 JOHOR LAMA BN PKR 26.92
157 PENGERANG 38 PENAWAR BN AMANAH 10.29
157 PENGERANG 39 TANJONG SURAT BN PKR 18.76
158 TEBRAU 40 TIRAM BN PKR 56.30 YES YES YES YES
158 TEBRAU 41 PUTERI WANGSA PAS PPBM 48.46 YES YES YES
159 PASIR GUDANG 42 JOHOR JAYA DAP DAP 51.53 YES YES YES YES
159 PASIR GUDANG 43 PERMAS BN PPBM 45.22 YES YES
160 JOHOR BAHRU 44 TANJONG PUTERI BN PPBM 37.28
160 JOHOR BAHRU 45 STULANG DAP DAP 50.90 YES YES YES YES
161 PULAI 46 PENGKALAN RINTING DAP DAP 50.81 YES YES YES YES
161 PULAI 47 KEMPAS BN PPBM 42.84 YES
162 GELANG PATAH 48 SKUDAI DAP DAP 64.93 YES YES YES YES
162 GELANG PATAH 49 NUSA JAYA BN AMANAH 46.11 YES YES
163 KULAI 50 BUKIT PERMAI BN PPBM 41.61 YES
163 KULAI 51 BUKIT BATU PKR PKR 60.83 YES YES YES YES
163 KULAI 52 SENAI DAP DAP 64.41 YES YES YES YES
164 PONTIAN 53 BENUT BN PPBM 28.28
164 PONTIAN 54 PULAI SEBATANG BN AMANAH 37.60
165 TANJONG PIAI 55 PEKAN NENAS DAP DAP 51.75 YES YES YES YES
165 TANJONG PIAI 56 KUKUP BN AMANAH 31.18

 

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Written by politweet

January 24, 2018 at 11:16 am

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