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Observing Malaysian Social Media

Posts Tagged ‘Barisan Nasional

The Impact of Redelineation On The Selangor State Elections

1. Introduction

On September 15th 2016 the Election Commission of Malaysia (Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya Malaysia) published the proposed redelineation of electoral boundaries for State and Federal constituencies. Under this proposal:

  • No new Federal constituencies would be created
  • 13 new State constituencies would be created in Sabah
  • No new State constituencies would be created in states other than Sabah
  • 12 Federal constituencies would be renamed
  • 36 State constituencies would be renamed

This report provides an overview of the impact of state constituency redelineation on the Selangor State elections. Analysis was performed based on the 2016 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll (before and after redelineation), State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

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Written by politweet

November 9, 2016 at 2:58 am

Recent Trends in Political Party Interest on Facebook in Malaysia (Aug 2016)

1. Introduction

This document provides a measurement of the political party interests of Facebook users in Malaysia. This is based on public information collected from Facebook.

Some important notes to remember when interpreting Facebook figures:

  1. Total population refers to Facebook users aged 13 years and above.
  2. Potential voters refer to Facebook users aged 21 years and above.
  3. Youth refers to Facebook users aged 13 – 20 years.
  4. Gender breakdown figures do not add up to the total. This may be due to Facebook users not sharing their gender, and also due to rounding errors by Facebook when dealing with specific age groups. State breakdown figures also do not add up to the total, due to the same rounding errors.
  5. Figures provided by Facebook are estimates. Some inaccuracies are to be expected.
  6. Facebook users residing in Malaysia are not necessarily Malaysian citizens.
  7. Interest in a topic is equal to the number of users expressing interest in a topic.
    1. To measure interest we used a combination of Facebook Interests (a collection of interests, activities, groups, pages, status updates and job history identified by a common term determined by Facebook e.g. ‘United Malays National Organization’) and specific Group and Page names (e.g. Friends of BN).
    2. These are used to collect the number of users interested in a given party/coalition/politician/group. For example, a user mentioning a party name in a status update; sharing a news link related to the party or sharing content from a party-affiliated page would count towards the total interest in that party
    3. Interest in a political party does not indicate support for the party, only awareness
    4. It is assumed that interest in PAS includes interest in AMANAH as PAS leaders migrated to AMANAH
  8. Audience refers to the population of users that express interest in a topic.
  9. Based on our research to date, Pages that are of type ‘politician’ are not always included under related Facebook Topics. For example, not all ‘Tony Pua’ (MP, PJ Utara, DAP) Page likes are included under interest in ‘DAP’. However because Facebook does not make Topic details available we cannot easily determine which politicians, if any, were included.
  10. Statistics on the Opposition primarily refer to component parties of the former Pakatan Rakyat – PKR, PAS and DAP. Interest in PSM is included in total statistics for the Opposition, but is not listed separately due to its small audience.

 

2. Interest in Political Parties on Facebook

The following graph shows the partisanship of interest in political parties by Facebook users in Malaysia aged 21 years and above. Interest in PAS is assumed to include interest in AMANAH because Facebook has not made separate AMANAH figures available yet.

FBPartisanship_Aug15_Aug16

Out of 8.4 million users in Malaysia (aged 21 years and above) that are interested in BN or Opposition parties:

  • 54% are male and 46% are female
  • 3 million are interested in Opposition parties
  • 8 million are interested in BN parties
  • 76% (400 thousand) are exclusively interested in Opposition parties
  • 52% (2.9 million) are interested in a mix of Opposition and BN parties
  • 71% (5.1 million) are exclusively interested in BN parties

As of August 2016 the level of exclusive interest in 60.71% for BN and 4.76% for the Opposition. This is a record high for BN and a record low for the Opposition since we began tracking these statistics in December 2012.

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Written by politweet

September 1, 2016 at 9:44 am

Sentiment Analysis on Selangor Menteri Besar Crisis

tski_opinion_sentiment_analysis2

We performed opinion-based sentiment analysis on 2,062 users who tweeted about the Selangor Menteri Besar crisis from August 9th – August 15th 2014. These users were randomly selected based on tweets we collected since the crisis began. Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

Our goal initially was to gauge public opinion primarily on whether to keep or remove Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. However mixed opinions emerged that allowed us to gauge responses to other parties involved e.g. Pakatan Rakyat (PR), Wan Azizah and Anwar Ibrahim. We were also able to gauge support for the State Assembly to be dissolved and state elections called.

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Kajang #GE13 Analysis

During the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology for estimating individual voter support based on polling lane results from the 12th General Election (GE12). The results of these calculations were used to design a program to predict election results based on ‘swing’ parameters fed in e.g. ethnic support; age group; increasing partisanship etc. You can read a summary of this method at the end of this post.

Using the polling lane results of the 13th General Election we compared our previous calculations and come up with an estimated swing. This can help inform analysts and campaigners. For the upcoming by-election in Kajang we found that:

  1. Support for PR has increased by 5.08% since GE12, from 62.73% to 67.81%
  2. Support increased from Chinese voters of all ages
  3. Support decreased from Malay voters aged 43 and above
  4. PR is likely to retain the seat this by-election

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Written by politweet

March 7, 2014 at 3:26 pm

Evolution of Spammers in Malaysian Politics

During the #Merdeka55 event (which you can read about here and here), we discovered the use of Twitter accounts to repeatedly send the same tweet at the same moment. This practice is known as spamming. You can see this pattern demonstrated in the below screenshot of the Twitter stream during the event – large blocks of identical tweets were being sent at the same moment.

Merdeka55BotSample

Since that time we have had to continuously improve our spam detection methods to filter out the spammed tweets. Our priority in our reports is to share content that was shared by the most number of people (not users) and genuinely popular.

Content that appears popular due to the usage of automated accounts or people hired to spam the content across multiple accounts need to have their popularity rank adjusted. We do not censor spammed content or ban spammers, but only filter out the individual tweets.

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Written by politweet

November 28, 2013 at 12:55 pm

Popular Response to #Bajet2014

Malaysia’s Federal Budget 2014 was announced on October 25th 2013. We monitored tweets related to the budget and analysed the content to see which budget measures were most popular.

Unlike last year’s Budget where the RM200 smartphone rebate was very popular among Twitter users, this year’s responses were mostly humourous, personal or sarcastic in nature. Essentially the tweets were not on-topic, which made analysis difficult. Certain topics could not be analysed in time due to their complexity, e.g. ‘harga minyak’ refers to both the price of cooking oil and the price of petrol. What we present here is a brief overview of the most popular responses based on keywords.
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Written by politweet

November 27, 2013 at 2:50 pm

Top Tweets from the #SungaiLimau By-Election

A by-election for the Sungai Limau State Assembly (DUN) seat was held on the 4th of November 2013, with the campaign period from 23rd October 2013 – 3rd November 2013. Based on tweets about the campaign we prepared listings of popular content on Twitter, for both the campaign period and the polling day.
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Written by politweet

November 22, 2013 at 10:37 am