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Posts Tagged ‘Election Forecast

Winning Odds for Pakatan Harapan in Johor (GE14)

1. Introduction

On January 20th 2018 a detailed listing of the 56 state seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Johor was published by Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/409412). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:

  • 18 seats contested by PPBM
  • 12 seats contested by PKR
  • 14 seats contested by DAP
  • 12 seats contested by AMANAH

This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH and the winning odds for each seat. Detailed election forecast results are not available at the moment due to the cost involved in running simulations, however the winning odds will give a rough idea of the swing in support that PH needs to win control of the state.

Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

A PDF copy of this report can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zYr2-a3KlYJ_msfEqaeze4FrKrqWOeSC/view?usp=sharing

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Written by politweet

January 24, 2018 at 11:16 am