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Evaluating Voter Support in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar Using General Election Results and Twitter

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat by comparing the results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in P67.Kuala Kangsar and P93.Sungai Besar. This will give a sense of what to expect during the by-elections to be held on June 18th 2016.

In addition to this we will also briefly examine political interest from Twitter users based in these constituencies. This may identify patterns that can be linked to urban youth in these areas.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis. They need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters only. We do not have access to the electoral roll being used for these by-elections and will be relying on estimated figures from the electoral roll for 2015 Q4 (4th quarter).

2. Seat Demographics

Demographics for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are listed below.

Detail / Seat P93. Sungai Besar P67. Kuala Kangsar
State

 

Selangor

 

Perak

 

Voters (GE13)

 

 

42,923

(2.09% of Selangor voters)

 

 

33,607

(2.38% of Perak voters)

 

Urban Development Category

 

Rural

 

Semi-urban

 

Majority Race

 

Malay

 

Malay

 

Contesting Parties (GE13)

 

UMNO, PAS

 

UMNO, PAS, Independent

 

Winner (GE13)

 

UMNO

 

UMNO

 

 

Twitter Users

 

 

 

1,049

(0.66% of Selangor users)

89% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

660

(2.39% of Perak users)

81% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

The following charts show the estimated ethnic divide among voters in both seats based on our estimated electoral roll for 2015 Q4. This covers all voters (postal, early and regular).

sgbesar_ethnicpie

kkangsar_ethnicpie

Changes in Sungai Besar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.33 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.4 percentage points
  • Indian voters increased by 0.06 percentage points
  • 1,260 voters removed
  • 1,394 new voters
  • 171 voters migrated in from other constituencies

 

Changes in Kuala Kangsar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.46 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.45 percentage points
  • Indian voters decreased by 0.015 percentage points
  • 1,153 voters removed
  • 1,079 new voters
  • 185 voters migrated in from other constituencies

Both seats have had an increase in the percentage of Malay voters, and a decrease in the percentage of Chinese voters.

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Written by politweet

June 11, 2016 at 9:25 am