An Analysis of Opinions on Tun Mahathir, Trends in Political Interest on Facebook and Political Support by Malay Youth in Malaysia

1. Introduction

This report is divided into the following sections:

1. Introduction
2. List of Acronyms
3. An Analysis of Opinions on Tun Mahathir Working With the Opposition Following the Citizens Declaration in March 2016
4. An Analysis of Opinions on Tun Mahathir as the PM candidate for Pakatan Harapan by Malay Youth in Peninsular Malaysia
5. Facebook Trends for Interest in Tun Mahathir and PM Najib
6. Malaysia’s Twitter Demographics Overview
7. Interest in Tun Mahathir on Twitter
8. Twitter Sentiment Analysis for PM Najib and Tun Mahathir
9. Conclusion

Each section will explore indicators from Twitter and Facebook to determine the level of support for Tun Mahathir, PM Najib and political parties.

This study was originally published on our Facebook Page on May 9th, 2018.

A PDF copy of this report can be downloaded from https://drive.google.com/open?id=13EIGTHlY8eClRslaUNhgg30j9ywAW9Fj

Evaluating the Response to the National Security Council Bill by Twitter Users in KL and Selangor

1. Background

The National Security Council (NSC) 2015 Bill was tabled in the Dewan Rakyat on December 1st [1]. The purpose of the bill is, “to establish the National Security Council with powers, among others, to control and coordinate, and to issue directives to, the Government Entities on matters concerning national security. The proposed Act also empowers the Prime Minister, upon advice by the Council, to declare certain area in Malaysia as a security area. Special powers are given to the Security Forces in the security area.” [2]

Within a security area, security forces may:

• evacuate persons from the area
• enforce a curfew on all persons within the area
• control the movement/entry/exit of persons and vehicles
• arrest any person suspected of committing an offence (without a warrant)
• stop and search any person, vehicle or premises (without a warrant)
• seize any vehicle if it is suspected to have been used in the commission of an offense
• take temporary possession of land, building or movable property in the interest of national security or as accommodation for security forces; with conditional compensation to aggrieved persons
• demolish unoccupied buildings that may be used by persons who are a threat to national security; with conditional compensation to aggrieved persons

Additionally the Council, its members, the security forces or personnel of Government entities are protected from legal action.

The combination of a lack of accountability and enforcement powers given to the PM were highlighted by the Opposition and civil society members.

Following the passing of the bill on December 4th [3], the #TakNakDiktator campaign on December 8th [4]. The goal of the campaign is to spread awareness of the issue and stop the bill from being made into law.

As of December 20th, 22,552 supporters have signed the online petition and 6,481 users have tweeted the #TakNakDiktator hashtag.

Key Topics, Influencers, Misinformation and How They Changed Perception towards 1MDB and Najib

1. Introduction

On August 3rd 2015 the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) released a statement saying that the alleged transfers of RM2.6 billion into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal account came from donors and not 1MDB (link1 , link2).

This prompted a strong response on Twitter as users started to tweet about Najib and derma (donations).

We collected 193,893 tweets from 79,949 users about donations (derma) and Najib from August 3rd – August 6th. To get a sense of the scale, here is the graph for mentions of Najib and donations per day within the past 30 days.

Opinion Analysis of Twitter Users in Malaysia on Muhyiddin Yassin’s Dismissal

1. Background

On July 28th 2015 a new Cabinet line-up was announced by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was absent from the new Cabinet. Zaid Hamidi replaced him for the post of Deputy Prime Minister and Mahdzir Khalid replaced him for the post of Minister of Education.

Muhyiddin being dropped from the Cabinet followed speculation that this would happen due to his remarks about 1MDB on Sunday, July 26th. He was reported to have asked for PM Najib to personally explain the 1MDB issue and answer the allegations by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) [1].

2. Our Analysis

We performed opinion-based analysis on 502 users based in Malaysia who tweeted about Muhyiddin and related terms on July 28th 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.37%.

Users were selected based on their tweet content and activity during this period. Sampling was done per-state based on the current estimated user population.

Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

From this dataset we analysed the individual Twitter user timelines to determine their opinion. This took their tweets, retweets and conversations into account.

Our goal was to gauge public reaction by Twitter users in Malaysia to the removal of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to see if they supported the decision.

Users who were tweeting about related topics (PM Najib; the Cabinet line-up) but not in response to Muhyiddin Yassin’s dismissal were not included in the sample. However we took note of what these users were saying for section 4 (Additional Opinions).

Based on this analysis we categorised users as belonging to one of the following categories:

1. Positive
2. Neutral
3. Negative (support Muhyiddin)

These were further divided into the following categories based on which party they chose to support/criticise:

1. Positive
2. Neutral
3. Negative (support Muhyiddin)
4. Negative (support Muhyiddin, critical of Najib)
5. Negative (support Muhyiddin, he must oppose Najib)

The results are shown in the following charts.

Early Findings from Conversations about Muhyiddin Yassin

1. Background

On July 28th 2015 a new Cabinet line-up was announced by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak (PM Najib).
Former Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin was absent from the new Cabinet. Zaid Hamidi replaced him for the post of Deputy Prime Minister and Mahdzir Khalid replaced him for the post of Minister of Education.

Muhyiddin being dropped from the Cabinet followed speculation that this would happen due to his remarks about 1MDB on Sunday, July 26th. He was reported to have asked for PM Najib to personally explain the 1MDB issue and answer the allegations by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) (reference).

Opinion Analysis on PM Najib Razak After WSJ Expose (by Users in Malaysia)

1. Background

On July 3rd 2015 at 4.42 AM (GMT+8), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an article alleging that the on-going investigation into 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) found evidence of billions of ringgit being transferred into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal bank accounts at AmIslamic Bank [1].

This was followed by a more detailed expose by Sarawak Report tweeted at 5.20 AM that provided unverified details on the dates, account numbers and sums of money involved [2].

News of the expose started to spread online at 9 AM. From what we observed, WSJ carrying the story added credibility to the claims despite having no evidence attached to the article. The Prime Minister responded with a press statement stating that he had ‘never taken funds for personal gain’ and the allegations came with no evidence [3]. WSJ has stood by their claims [4].

Over the next few days online backlash against the PM continued to increase. The publication of allegations by WSJ served as a trigger for an outpouring of criticism towards the PM on many issues beyond the alleged theft.

2. Our Analysis

We performed opinion-based analysis on 600 users based in Malaysia who tweeted about Najib, @NajibRazak, 1MDB, WSJ, Sarawak Report and related terms from July 3rd – July 7th 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

Users were selected based on their tweet content and activity during this period. Sampling was done per-state based on the current estimated user population.

Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

From this dataset we analysed the individual Twitter user timelines to determine their opinion. This took their tweets, retweets and conversations into account.

Our goal was to gauge public reaction by Twitter users in Malaysia to the allegations raised by the Wall Street Journal and Sarawak Report. Users who were tweeting about PM Najib but not in response to the issues raised (transfer of funds from 1MDB) were not included in the sample.

Based on this analysis we categorised users as belonging to one of the following categories:

1. Positive
2. Neutral
3. Negative

These were further divided into the following categories based on which party they chose to support/criticise:

1. Positive
2. Neutral
3. Negative (general)
4. Negative (Najib must resign)
5. Negative (Najib must resign, directed to @NajibRazak)
6. Negative (directed to @NajibRazak)

The results are shown in the following charts.

Response to Najib Razak’s Absence at #Nothing2Hide Event by Twitter Users in Malaysia

1. Background

A dialogue between Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak and non-government organisations (NGO) was scheduled to be held at PWTC on Friday, June 5th 2015 (9 am – 11 am) [1]. The event was organised by the Malaysian Volunteer Lawyers Association (SukaGuam) and titled, #Nothing2Hide. Former Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir was also expected to attend [2].

Minutes before the event was due to start, the IGP announced that the event was cancelled to ensure public order [3]. Despite that the audience stayed on even after confirmation that the PM would not be attending [4].

Rumours started circulating on Twitter that the PM was ‘scared’ of Tun Dr.Mahathir, who took to the stage at 10.33 AM [5]. Minutes later, the police asked him to stop and prevented him from continuing. This sparked further outrage online.

At 5.17 PM, Najib Razak tweeted a statement saying that he was ready to have a dialogue with NGOs provided it was held in a peaceful environment [6]. Remarks about Najib Razak and #Nothing2Hide continued over the next few days.

2. Our Analysis

We performed opinion-based analysis on 1000 users based in Malaysia who tweeted about the #Nothing2Hide event, Najib Razak and related terms from June 5th – June 8th 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.

Users were selected based on their tweet content and activity during this period. Sampling was done per-state based on the current estimated user population.

Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

From this dataset we analysed the individual Twitter user timelines to determine their opinion. This took their tweets, retweets and conversations into account.

Our goal was to gauge the response by users in Malaysia to the Prime Minister not showing up at the event. We focused our analysis on their opinion of the PM and their general response to his absence at the event. Opinions about Tun Dr. Mahathir were not included as part of the detailed analysis.

Based on this analysis we categorised users as belonging to one of the following categories:

1. Positive
2. Neutral
3. Negative (general)
4. Negative (directed to @NajibRazak)

The results are shown in the following chart:

Popular Tweets from #Kangkung

#Kangkung was a Malaysian social media meme that started yesterday on January 13th 2014. It was prompted by a brief video clip of Prime Minister Najib Razak giving a speech as seen below (from minute 0:46 onwards):

In the video, the PM spoke about the price fluctuation of goods and questioned why the government gets criticised when prices increase but doesn’t get praised when prices decrease. He then gave the example of kangkung (water spinach) that had recently dropped in price. Netizens responded with all kinds of mocking statements and images deriding the PM for this statement, primarily using the hashtag #Kangkung.

Census of Facebook Users in Malaysia, Dec 2012

View this document on Scribd

The following is the executive summary, included in the Scribd document above.

Executive Summary

This document describes the population of Facebook users in Malaysia based on public information collected from Facebook.  The goal is to provide a point of reference for social media marketing and a report on Malaysian interest in politics.

Personal characteristics and interests in topics such as Pakatan Rakyat (PR), Barisan Nasional(BN), coalition leaders, Bersih, 1Malaysia and both mainstream media (MSM) and online alternative media publications were measured by age group and gender.

Users interested in a topic are considered the fan-base for that topic. Research focused on potential voters (users aged 21 years and above).

Findings

Malaysia has a total population of 13.5 million Facebook users. The population is male-dominant – 53% are male and 47% are female.

Out of the total population, 9 million are potential voters – 54% are male and 46% are female.

Results of the analysis show that men are more interested in politics than women, but the overall population has little interest in politics. Only 8.8% of total potential voters expressed interest in PR and BN parties.

The research drew attention to a possible relationship between the male-female ratios of each topic’s fan-base:

• Female bias was present in the fan-base for Malay-language MSM, Chinese-language MSM.
• Female bias was strongest in the fan-base for 1Malaysia.
• Male bias was present in the fan-base for English-language MSM and Barisan Nasional parties.
• Male bias was strongest in the fan-base for Pakatan Rakyat parties, Bersih and online alternative media.

For female-dominated topics, there is 1Malaysia and Malay-language MSM. The 1Malaysia brand is associated with BN and Malay-language MSM tends to give more coverage to BN parties.

For male-dominated topics, there is PR, Bersih and online alternative media. Bersih is a coalition of non-governmental organisations (NGO) seeking electoral reform. Bersih is strongly supported by PR. Online alternative media tends to give more coverage to PR parties compared to mainstream media.

PR’s fan-base is 1.5 times larger than BN’s fan-base. However the gap between BN and PR is small when it comes to women and PR’s fan-base is more male dominant compared to BN. This means that BN can overtake PR when it comes to potential women voters.

Conclusion

Population growth in November showed that both BN and PR’s fan-base were becoming less male-dominant. However BN started with a more favourable position in terms of gender balance.

Both 1Malaysia and Malay-language MSM have a female-dominant fan-base, which is a good market for BN to draw users from.

PR does not have a female-dominant source to draw from. Bersih and online alternative media are too male-dominant. The main source left to draw from are women who currently do not show an interest in politics, which is a challenge faced by both coalitions.

This places BN in a better position than PR to increase its share of interest from potential women voters.