Politweet.Org

Observing Malaysian Social Media

Posts Tagged ‘Pakatan Rakyat

The Impact of Redelineation On The Selangor State Elections

1. Introduction

On September 15th 2016 the Election Commission of Malaysia (Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya Malaysia) published the proposed redelineation of electoral boundaries for State and Federal constituencies. Under this proposal:

  • No new Federal constituencies would be created
  • 13 new State constituencies would be created in Sabah
  • No new State constituencies would be created in states other than Sabah
  • 12 Federal constituencies would be renamed
  • 36 State constituencies would be renamed

This report provides an overview of the impact of state constituency redelineation on the Selangor State elections. Analysis was performed based on the 2016 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll (before and after redelineation), State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

November 9, 2016 at 2:58 am

Evaluating Voter Support in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar Using General Election Results and Twitter

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat by comparing the results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in P67.Kuala Kangsar and P93.Sungai Besar. This will give a sense of what to expect during the by-elections to be held on June 18th 2016.

In addition to this we will also briefly examine political interest from Twitter users based in these constituencies. This may identify patterns that can be linked to urban youth in these areas.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis. They need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters only. We do not have access to the electoral roll being used for these by-elections and will be relying on estimated figures from the electoral roll for 2015 Q4 (4th quarter).

2. Seat Demographics

Demographics for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are listed below.

Detail / Seat P93. Sungai Besar P67. Kuala Kangsar
State

 

Selangor

 

Perak

 

Voters (GE13)

 

 

42,923

(2.09% of Selangor voters)

 

 

33,607

(2.38% of Perak voters)

 

Urban Development Category

 

Rural

 

Semi-urban

 

Majority Race

 

Malay

 

Malay

 

Contesting Parties (GE13)

 

UMNO, PAS

 

UMNO, PAS, Independent

 

Winner (GE13)

 

UMNO

 

UMNO

 

 

Twitter Users

 

 

 

1,049

(0.66% of Selangor users)

89% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

660

(2.39% of Perak users)

81% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

The following charts show the estimated ethnic divide among voters in both seats based on our estimated electoral roll for 2015 Q4. This covers all voters (postal, early and regular).

sgbesar_ethnicpie

kkangsar_ethnicpie

Changes in Sungai Besar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.33 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.4 percentage points
  • Indian voters increased by 0.06 percentage points
  • 1,260 voters removed
  • 1,394 new voters
  • 171 voters migrated in from other constituencies

 

Changes in Kuala Kangsar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.46 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.45 percentage points
  • Indian voters decreased by 0.015 percentage points
  • 1,153 voters removed
  • 1,079 new voters
  • 185 voters migrated in from other constituencies

Both seats have had an increase in the percentage of Malay voters, and a decrease in the percentage of Chinese voters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

June 11, 2016 at 9:25 am

Opinion Analysis on Breakup of Pakatan Rakyat by Users in Malaysia

1. Background

On June 16th 2015 the Democratic Action Party (DAP) released a statement saying that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) ceases to exist following the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) Muktamar’s motion to sever ties with DAP [1]. The DAP also pledged to work with PKR and any other parties to defeat Barisan Nasional (BN).

On June 17th 2015 Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) released a statement saying that Pakatan Rakyat no longer functions formally [2]. PKR also stated that they would work to build a coalition to defeat BN.

In the days that followed there was confusion on whether Pakatan Rakyat as a coalition was truly dead. This is illustrated by the following public statements by component party leaders:

  • June 18th: PAS Elections Director Datuk Mustafa Ali stated that PAS was not dead, only ‘fainted’ [3]
  • June 19th: PAS President Hadi Awang declared that PR was not dead [4]
  • June 20th: DAP Parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang responded by saying PR was dead [5]
  • June 20th: PKR Deputy Youth Chief insists that PR is not dead [6]

Currently the Opposition-held state governments of Kelantan, Selangor and Penang appear to be continuing as state-level coalition governments. Whether the coalitions will continue to use ‘Pakatan Rakyat’ to refer to themselves is unclear.

2. Our Analysis

We performed opinion-based analysis on 475 users based in Malaysia who tweeted about Pakatan Rakyat, its component parties and related terms from June 16th – June 20th 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

Users were selected based on their tweet content and activity during this period. Sampling was done per-state based on the current estimated user population.

Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.
From this dataset we analysed the individual Twitter user timelines to determine their opinion. This took their tweets, retweets and conversations into account.

Our goal was to gauge public reaction by Twitter users in Malaysia to the breakup of Pakatan Rakyat.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

June 29, 2015 at 3:43 pm

Opinion Analysis on Anwar Trial Verdict

OpinionUsers_AnwarVerdict_Pie

We performed opinion-based analysis on 840 users based in Malaysia who tweeted about the Anwar trial verdict from February 10th 2015 – February 11th 2015.

Users were selected based on their tweet content and activity during this period. Sampling was done per-state based on the active user population during this period. Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

From this dataset we analysed the individual Twitter user timelines to determine their opinion on the trial verdict. This took their tweets, retweets and conversations into account. Our goal was to gauge public opinion by Malaysian users on the guilty verdict.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

February 17, 2015 at 1:00 pm

Sentiment Analysis on Selangor Menteri Besar Crisis

tski_opinion_sentiment_analysis2

We performed opinion-based sentiment analysis on 2,062 users who tweeted about the Selangor Menteri Besar crisis from August 9th – August 15th 2014. These users were randomly selected based on tweets we collected since the crisis began. Spammers, news agencies and accounts with automated tweets were not included in the sample.

Our goal initially was to gauge public opinion primarily on whether to keep or remove Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. However mixed opinions emerged that allowed us to gauge responses to other parties involved e.g. Pakatan Rakyat (PR), Wan Azizah and Anwar Ibrahim. We were also able to gauge support for the State Assembly to be dissolved and state elections called.

Read the rest of this entry »

Top Social Media Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Polling Day

During the recent by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

Mah Siew Keong won the seat with a majority of 238 votes.

The following social media statistics and most-shared posts/tweets are based on what was posted on May 31st 2014 (polling day). Please note that for Facebook we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared. For Twitter we work with a live stream of data, so there is no sampling issue there.

This post covers both Facebook and Twitter content.

Please read our other #PRKTelukIntan posts for more information:

Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day

Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2

Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan

Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan

Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1

Teluk Intan Social Media Stats


Read the rest of this entry »

Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya (the DAP candidate) and Mah Siew Keong (the GERAKAN candidate) for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Content was taken from the final day of campaigning on May 30th. Polling day is today on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

Dyana Sofya held a ceramah in Teluk Intan on the night of the last day. We estimated 14,000 – 22,000 people attended the event.
Read the rest of this entry »