Posts Tagged ‘Perak’
Evaluating Voter Support in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar Using General Election Results and Twitter
1. Background
Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.
Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.
The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat by comparing the results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.
After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:
- By Age
- By Race
- By Gender
- By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
- By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
- By Polling District
- By Locality
- By Seats Won by Specific Parties
Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:
Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.
Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well
Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development
For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in P67.Kuala Kangsar and P93.Sungai Besar. This will give a sense of what to expect during the by-elections to be held on June 18th 2016.
In addition to this we will also briefly examine political interest from Twitter users based in these constituencies. This may identify patterns that can be linked to urban youth in these areas.
Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis. They need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.
Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters only. We do not have access to the electoral roll being used for these by-elections and will be relying on estimated figures from the electoral roll for 2015 Q4 (4th quarter).
2. Seat Demographics
Demographics for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are listed below.
Detail / Seat | P93. Sungai Besar | P67. Kuala Kangsar |
State
|
Selangor
|
Perak
|
Voters (GE13)
|
42,923 (2.09% of Selangor voters)
|
33,607 (2.38% of Perak voters)
|
Urban Development Category
|
Rural
|
Semi-urban
|
Majority Race
|
Malay
|
Malay
|
Contesting Parties (GE13)
|
UMNO, PAS
|
UMNO, PAS, Independent
|
Winner (GE13)
|
UMNO
|
UMNO
|
Twitter Users
|
1,049 (0.66% of Selangor users) 89% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia |
660 (2.39% of Perak users) 81% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia |
The following charts show the estimated ethnic divide among voters in both seats based on our estimated electoral roll for 2015 Q4. This covers all voters (postal, early and regular).
Changes in Sungai Besar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):
- Malay voters increased by 0.33 percentage points
- Chinese voters decreased by 0.4 percentage points
- Indian voters increased by 0.06 percentage points
- 1,260 voters removed
- 1,394 new voters
- 171 voters migrated in from other constituencies
Changes in Kuala Kangsar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):
- Malay voters increased by 0.46 percentage points
- Chinese voters decreased by 0.45 percentage points
- Indian voters decreased by 0.015 percentage points
- 1,153 voters removed
- 1,079 new voters
- 185 voters migrated in from other constituencies
Both seats have had an increase in the percentage of Malay voters, and a decrease in the percentage of Chinese voters.
Written by politweet
June 11, 2016 at 9:25 am
Posted in Analyses, Social Media
Tagged with #GE13, AMANAH, DAP, Kuala Kangsar, Pakatan Harapan, Pakatan Rakyat, PAN, PAS, Perak, Selangor, Sungai Besar, Twitter
Top Social Media Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Polling Day
During the recent by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.
Mah Siew Keong won the seat with a majority of 238 votes.
The following social media statistics and most-shared posts/tweets are based on what was posted on May 31st 2014 (polling day). Please note that for Facebook we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared. For Twitter we work with a live stream of data, so there is no sampling issue there.
This post covers both Facebook and Twitter content.
Please read our other #PRKTelukIntan posts for more information:
Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day
Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2
Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan
Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan
Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1
Teluk Intan Social Media Stats
Written by politweet
June 1, 2014 at 10:56 am
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #jompilihmah, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day
The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya (the DAP candidate) and Mah Siew Keong (the GERAKAN candidate) for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Content was taken from the final day of campaigning on May 30th. Polling day is today on May 31st.
These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.
Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.
Dyana Sofya held a ceramah in Teluk Intan on the night of the last day. We estimated 14,000 – 22,000 people attended the event.
Read the rest of this entry »
Written by politweet
May 31, 2014 at 8:03 am
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #jompilihmah, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2
During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.
The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the second week of the campaign, May 27th – May 30th (morning). Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.
From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.
Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
Read the rest of this entry »
Written by politweet
May 30, 2014 at 12:31 pm
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan
The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Mah Siew Keong, the GERAKAN candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.
These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.
Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.
We have divided the content into 2 periods:
- Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
- Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)
Written by politweet
May 30, 2014 at 10:09 am
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan
The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya, the DAP candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.
These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.
Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.
We have divided the content into 2 periods:
- Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
- Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)
Written by politweet
May 30, 2014 at 9:06 am
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1
During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.
The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the first week of the campaign, May 19th – May 26th. Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.
From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.
Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
Read the rest of this entry »
Written by politweet
May 28, 2014 at 11:38 am
Posted in Social Media
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bn4telukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #mohpilihmah, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, GERAKAN, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Teluk Intan Social Media Stats
As a follow-up to our previous analysis on voter sentiment, we have collected social media statistics that are relevant to the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and GERAKAN under Barisan Nasional (BN) are contesting in the by-election, so our analysis will focus on these parties.
From what we have so far it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
Read the rest of this entry »
Written by politweet
May 22, 2014 at 5:53 am
Posted in Analyses, Statistics
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan
Teluk Intan #GE13 Analysis
During the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology for estimating individual voter support based on polling lane results from the 12th General Election (GE12). The results of these calculations were used to design a program to predict election results based on ‘swing’ parameters fed in e.g. ethnic support; age group; increasing partisanship etc. You can read a summary of this method at the end of this post.
Using the polling lane results of the 13th General Election we compared our previous calculations and come up with an estimated swing. This can help inform analysts and campaigners for Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
For the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we performed an analysis of the GE13 results and found that:
- Support for PR has increased by an average of 3.33% since GE12, from 43.85% to 47.18%
- Support increased from Chinese voters of all ages
- Support increased from Malay voters below 40 years old
- Support decreased from Malay voters aged 40 years and above
- Malay and Indian women voters may be a weak point for PR, particularly Indian women
- PR is likely to retain the seat this by-election provided that GE13 voting patterns remain the same. The choice of candidates by BN and PR may affect the voting patterns due to differences in ethnicity, age, gender and experience. However we have no data to predict the impact of these differences.
For social media statistics on Teluk Intan please check this post.
Read the rest of this entry »
Written by politweet
May 21, 2014 at 10:10 pm
Posted in Analyses
Tagged with #battleoftelukintan, #bnfortelukintan, #dyana4telukintan, #mahsiewkeong, #PRKTelukIntan, BN, by-election, DAP, Dyana Sofya, Mah Siew Keong, Pakatan Rakyat, Perak, PR, Teluk Intan