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Posts Tagged ‘Perak

Evaluating Voter Support in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar Using General Election Results and Twitter

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat by comparing the results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in P67.Kuala Kangsar and P93.Sungai Besar. This will give a sense of what to expect during the by-elections to be held on June 18th 2016.

In addition to this we will also briefly examine political interest from Twitter users based in these constituencies. This may identify patterns that can be linked to urban youth in these areas.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis. They need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters only. We do not have access to the electoral roll being used for these by-elections and will be relying on estimated figures from the electoral roll for 2015 Q4 (4th quarter).

2. Seat Demographics

Demographics for Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar are listed below.

Detail / Seat P93. Sungai Besar P67. Kuala Kangsar
State

 

Selangor

 

Perak

 

Voters (GE13)

 

 

42,923

(2.09% of Selangor voters)

 

 

33,607

(2.38% of Perak voters)

 

Urban Development Category

 

Rural

 

Semi-urban

 

Majority Race

 

Malay

 

Malay

 

Contesting Parties (GE13)

 

UMNO, PAS

 

UMNO, PAS, Independent

 

Winner (GE13)

 

UMNO

 

UMNO

 

 

Twitter Users

 

 

 

1,049

(0.66% of Selangor users)

89% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

660

(2.39% of Perak users)

81% primarily use Bahasa Malaysia

 

The following charts show the estimated ethnic divide among voters in both seats based on our estimated electoral roll for 2015 Q4. This covers all voters (postal, early and regular).

sgbesar_ethnicpie

kkangsar_ethnicpie

Changes in Sungai Besar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.33 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.4 percentage points
  • Indian voters increased by 0.06 percentage points
  • 1,260 voters removed
  • 1,394 new voters
  • 171 voters migrated in from other constituencies

 

Changes in Kuala Kangsar since GE13 (up to 2015 Q4):

  • Malay voters increased by 0.46 percentage points
  • Chinese voters decreased by 0.45 percentage points
  • Indian voters decreased by 0.015 percentage points
  • 1,153 voters removed
  • 1,079 new voters
  • 185 voters migrated in from other constituencies

Both seats have had an increase in the percentage of Malay voters, and a decrease in the percentage of Chinese voters.

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Written by politweet

June 11, 2016 at 9:25 am

Top Social Media Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Polling Day

During the recent by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

Mah Siew Keong won the seat with a majority of 238 votes.

The following social media statistics and most-shared posts/tweets are based on what was posted on May 31st 2014 (polling day). Please note that for Facebook we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared. For Twitter we work with a live stream of data, so there is no sampling issue there.

This post covers both Facebook and Twitter content.

Please read our other #PRKTelukIntan posts for more information:

Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day

Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2

Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan

Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan

Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1

Teluk Intan Social Media Stats


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Top Twitter Content From #PRKTelukIntan, Final Campaign Day

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya (the DAP candidate) and Mah Siew Keong (the GERAKAN candidate) for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Content was taken from the final day of campaigning on May 30th. Polling day is today on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

Dyana Sofya held a ceramah in Teluk Intan on the night of the last day. We estimated 14,000 – 22,000 people attended the event.
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Top Facebook Media and Stats From #PRKTelukIntan, Week 2

During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the second week of the campaign, May 27th – May 30th (morning). Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.

From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.

However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.

Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
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Top Twitter Content About Mah Siew Keong, #PRKTelukIntan

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Mah Siew Keong, the GERAKAN candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

We have divided the content into 2 periods:

  • Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
  • Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)

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Top Twitter Content About Dyana Sofya, #PRKTelukIntan

The following is a list of the most shared photos and tweets on Twitter mentioning Dyana Sofya, the DAP candidate for the by-election in Teluk Intan. Polling day is tomorrow on May 31st.

These images should give an idea of what messages and events were popular with users on Twitter. We did not include event announcements (banner images) in this sample.

Media ranking was done by the number of users sharing the URL of the photo, not the number of retweets received. Mention ranking was done by the number of users sharing the retweeted text of the original tweet. This is due to users’ common practice of manually retweeting tweets by a ‘copy and paste’ method.

We have divided the content into 2 periods:

  • Week 1 (May 19th – May 25th)
  • Week 2 (May 26th – early morning on May 30th)

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Top Facebook Media and Stats from #PRKTelukIntan, Week 1

During the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we have been collecting data from both Facebook and Twitter. Keywords based on the campaign and name of the candidates Dyana Sofya (PR/DAP) and Mah Siew Keong (BN/GERAKAN) were used.

The following Facebook statistics and most-shared posts are based on the first week of the campaign, May 19th – May 26th. Please note that we are limited to only public posts, and only a daily sample of what was shared.

From our previous analysis (read here) it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.

However it is an indication of what campaign messages received the most traction with users online, and this analysis can help future campaigners on a national level.

Please read our Teluk Intan GE13 Analysis for an idea of PR and BN’s odds in this by-election.
Read the rest of this entry »