Posts Tagged ‘PR’
Teluk Intan Social Media Stats
As a follow-up to our previous analysis on voter sentiment, we have collected social media statistics that are relevant to the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) under Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and GERAKAN under Barisan Nasional (BN) are contesting in the by-election, so our analysis will focus on these parties.
From what we have so far it is clear that social media usage will not have a big impact on the by-election results. Popularity on Facebook or Twitter are not going to be an indication of which party wins.
Read the rest of this entry »
Teluk Intan #GE13 Analysis
During the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology for estimating individual voter support based on polling lane results from the 12th General Election (GE12). The results of these calculations were used to design a program to predict election results based on ‘swing’ parameters fed in e.g. ethnic support; age group; increasing partisanship etc. You can read a summary of this method at the end of this post.
Using the polling lane results of the 13th General Election we compared our previous calculations and come up with an estimated swing. This can help inform analysts and campaigners for Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
For the current by-election in P76.Teluk Intan we performed an analysis of the GE13 results and found that:
- Support for PR has increased by an average of 3.33% since GE12, from 43.85% to 47.18%
- Support increased from Chinese voters of all ages
- Support increased from Malay voters below 40 years old
- Support decreased from Malay voters aged 40 years and above
- Malay and Indian women voters may be a weak point for PR, particularly Indian women
- PR is likely to retain the seat this by-election provided that GE13 voting patterns remain the same. The choice of candidates by BN and PR may affect the voting patterns due to differences in ethnicity, age, gender and experience. However we have no data to predict the impact of these differences.
For social media statistics on Teluk Intan please check this post.
Read the rest of this entry »