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Posts Tagged ‘Pribumi

Winning Odds for Pakatan Harapan in Johor (GE14)

1. Introduction

On January 20th 2018 a detailed listing of the 56 state seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Johor was published by Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/409412). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:

  • 18 seats contested by PPBM
  • 12 seats contested by PKR
  • 14 seats contested by DAP
  • 12 seats contested by AMANAH

This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH and the winning odds for each seat. Detailed election forecast results are not available at the moment due to the cost involved in running simulations, however the winning odds will give a rough idea of the swing in support that PH needs to win control of the state.

Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

A PDF copy of this report can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zYr2-a3KlYJ_msfEqaeze4FrKrqWOeSC/view?usp=sharing

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Written by politweet

January 24, 2018 at 11:16 am

Election Forecast for Pakatan Harapan in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14)

1. Introduction

On January 10th 2018 a detailed listing of the 165 seats being contested by Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Peninsular Malaysia was published in The Star and Malaysiakini (https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/408114). Based on this listing, the seat division is as follows:

  • 52 seats contested by PPBM
  • 51 seats contested by PKR
  • 35 seats contested by DAP
  • 27 seats contested by AMANAH

This report provides an overview of the seats contested by component parties in PH, the winning odds and forecasted results for each seat under a number of different scenarios. Analysis was performed based on the 2017 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll, 2016 3rd Quarter (Q3) electoral roll, State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

A copy of this report in PDF format can be downloaded at https://drive.google.com/file/d/16glv67fwRybQxdKS7X1fFC9R1SN0TSGy/view?usp=sharing

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

January 16, 2018 at 10:00 am

The Impact of Redelineation On The Selangor State Elections

1. Introduction

On September 15th 2016 the Election Commission of Malaysia (Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya Malaysia) published the proposed redelineation of electoral boundaries for State and Federal constituencies. Under this proposal:

  • No new Federal constituencies would be created
  • 13 new State constituencies would be created in Sabah
  • No new State constituencies would be created in states other than Sabah
  • 12 Federal constituencies would be renamed
  • 36 State constituencies would be renamed

This report provides an overview of the impact of state constituency redelineation on the Selangor State elections. Analysis was performed based on the 2016 1st Quarter (Q1) electoral roll (before and after redelineation), State and Federal seat results from the 13th General Election (GE13) and individual historical voting patterns from GE12 (2008) and GE13 (2013).

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

November 9, 2016 at 2:58 am