Politweet.Org

Observing Malaysian Social Media

Posts Tagged ‘#PRU13

Analysing Pakatan Rakyat’s Performance with Malay Voters in Peninsular Malaysia (GE13)

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections (reference).

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery (reference). The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular Malay voters (pengundi biasa) in Peninsular Malaysia. 184 of the total 222 Parliament seats are in Peninsular Malaysia, where most of the Malay electorate is concentrated.

Elections are won based on the number of seats. However our analysis will mainly be on the Malay electorate treated as a set of voters ignoring constituency boundaries. We will examine this at the state-level and for Peninsular Malaysia. This will allow us to see patterns that are not obvious at the seat-level.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis. They need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters in Peninsular Malaysia only.

Read the rest of this entry »

Advertisements

Written by politweet

July 27, 2015 at 4:27 pm

Posted in Analyses

Tagged with , , , , , , ,

Top 30 Most Shared #GE13 Links on Twitter

During Malaysia’s 13th General Election we tracked a number of related political hashtags, as well as mentions of politicians on Twitter. This post lists the most shared website links and domains on Twitter from 20th April 2013 – 6th May 2013, ranked by the number of users sharing each link.
Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

October 8, 2013 at 8:38 am

Top 50 Most Shared #GE13 Photos on Twitter

During Malaysia’s 13th General Election we tracked a number of related political hashtags, as well as mentions of politicians on Twitter. The following is a list of the most shared photos on Twitter from 20th April 2013 – 6th May 2013, ranked by the number of users sharing each photo.
Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

October 7, 2013 at 6:50 am

Kuala Besut GE13 Analysis

During the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology for estimating individual voter support based on polling lane results from the 12th General Election (GE12). The results of these calculations were used to design a program to predict election results based on ‘swing’ parameters fed in e.g. ethnic support; age group; increasing partisanship etc. You can read a summary of this method at the end of this post.

Using the polling lane results of the 13th General Election we can compare our previous calculations and come up with an estimated swing. This can help inform analysts and campigners. We have just completed our analysis for Kuala Besut in anticipation of tomorrow’s by-election and these are the results.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

July 23, 2013 at 8:19 am

Urban Development Categorisation of Parliament Seats in Malaysia

The list of Parliament seats in Malaysia by urban development category can be found here.

For further reading on the methodology please read this blog post.

The categories are:

  • Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.
  • Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well
  • Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

This classification was done by us based on Google Maps satellite imagery and SPR maps. This is not the same as SPR’s own internal classification of seats. You can find our reference maps here (link).

We have obtained a gridded map of Malaysia that defines persons per square kilometre, based on a grid cell size of 19 square kilometres. This population estimate is based on an extrapolation of the 2000 National Census. This map will enable us to :

  • Estimate the size of the constituency
  • Estimate the min, max and average population density
  • Define a range of rural, semi-urban and urban categories, instead of just three
  • Perform seat classification at the State Assembly Seat (DUN) level

However this is time consuming and will likely take months to prepare. A sample of the Peninsular Malaysia map is shown below, rendered as a heatmap ranging from Green (low population density) -> Yellow -> Orange -> Red -> Purple (highest population density). The SPR maps are overlaid over it, and by toggling visibility we can identify which cells belong to which constituency. For area calculation we can subdivide the 19 square kilometre grid into 4.75 or 1.1875 square kilometre grids, depending on how small the related constituency is.

GriddedMsia_SPR1

Written by politweet

May 30, 2013 at 1:57 pm

The Rural-Urban Divide in Malaysia’s General Election

108 out of 133 seats won by Barisan Nasional (BN) came from rural seats. 72 out of 89 seats won by Pakatan Rakyat (PR) came from urban and semi-urban seats.

While it is true that PR won every Chinese-majority seat, there are only 30 Chinese-majority seats in the country. That leaves at least 59 seats won with the support of other races.

When comparing Malay-majority seats, PR won more seats than BN in both semi-urban and urban categories. A Malay-majority seat cannot be seen as a guaranteed victory for BN.

In terms of the popular vote, BN obtained 57% of the popular vote in rural seats, 47% of the popular vote in semi-urban seats, and 36% of the popular vote in urban seats. Looking at the winning majorities of individual seats, the probability of BN regaining urban seats is low. This gap in the popular vote is illustrated in the infographics at the end of this post.

That is the picture of the political urban-rural divide. BN represents the rural majority and can retain power with rural and semi-urban seats alone. This election highlighted PR’s weak areas which are rural seats, Bumiputra Sabah majority and Bumiputra Sarawak majority seats.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by politweet

May 21, 2013 at 3:00 pm