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Posts Tagged ‘Sarawak

How Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat Performed With Voters in Sarawak (GE13)

1. Background

Prior to the 13th General Election (GE13) we came up with a methodology of predicting election results based on voting patterns in previous elections.

Our method relied on mapping polling lane results to individual voters. This process assigned probability values (chance of turnout; chance of voting for each coalition) to the voter that was not affected if they migrated to another constituency. This is important because between GE12 and GE13 527,849 voters migrated to different constituencies.

The impact of voter migration cannot be measured for a single seat just by comparing results of GE12 and GE13 for that seat. An analysis of the whole country needs to be performed. New voter registrations, voters passing away and voters no longer eligible to vote are other factors that require deep analysis.

After GE13 we were able to apply the same estimation method to voters based on GE13 results. By comparing the shift in probabilities we are able to calculate the swing in support for each coalition. Because we base our calculations on individual voters, we are able to calculate shifts in support based on combinations of the following dimensions:

  • By Age
  • By Race
  • By Gender
  • By Urban Development Category (rural / semi-urban / urban)
  • By Parliament/State Assembly Seat
  • By Polling District
  • By Locality
  • By Seats Won by Specific Parties

Any voter whose level of support cannot be determined is assigned a probability of 50% and categorised as a fence-sitter. The most reliable metric is age because voters are separated into polling lanes based on age. Additionally we have also categorised the 222 Parliament constituencies as rural, semi-urban or urban based on satellite imagery. The descriptions of each category are:

Rural = villages (kampungs) / small towns / farmland distributed within the seat. Rural seats tend to be physically large with a low population.

Semi-urban = larger towns and/or numerous small towns, may include villages as well

Urban = cities where a majority of the seat is covered by some form of urban development

For this report we will focus on how Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) performed with regular voters (pengundi biasa) in Sarawak. 31 of the total 222 Parliament seats are in Sarawak.

Our analysis will focus on Malay, Chinese and Bumiputera Sarawak voters. Other ethnic groups such as Indians, Orang Asli and Bumiputera Sabah voters will be counted under the ‘Others’ category unless otherwise specified. This is due to their low numbers within the electorate and the lack of detail within the National Census data.

Postal and early voters are not part of this analysis, other than the section on polling lanes. Postal voters need to be analysed separately due to their different voting process and difficulties in campaigning to both groups.

The predicted support for PR based on GE12 was estimated to be low. This is because in GE12 the PR component parties did not contest all seats. SNAP and Independents contested BN in some seats with no PR candidates. There were also seats that were won by BN uncontested. PR was effectively untested in Sarawak.

We tested analysis using SNAP and Independent results as ‘pro-Opposition’ in place of PR. However this approach made little impact on the analysis. A vote for SNAP or Independents also cannot be assumed as a vote for PR. To keep analysis consistent with a ‘BN versus PR’ perspective we did not treat SNAP and Independent candidate results as PR results.

We will also present analysis of seats at the state (DUN) level based on individual voting at the Parliament level. It is not as accurate as performing analysis based on state-level results but it should be applicable for constituencies where voters voted for the same coalition (BN / PR) for both state and Parliament.

Please remember that unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this analysis refer to regular voters in Sarawak only.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Written by politweet

April 16, 2016 at 9:12 pm

How did parties do in ethnic majority seats in Sarawak SE 2011?

When looking at the election results for 2011, PR only seems to have achieved great support from Chinese-majority seats.

But when comparing the results with 2006, it becomes obvious that BN has lost supporters across all ethnic-majority seats.

How did BN and PR both have a reduction in popular vote for Melanau+Malay majority seats? Some reasons are:

– New voters and increased voter turnout led to a bigger voter base that PR/BN needed to win over to retain 2006 level of support
– Independent, PCM and SNAP candidates won over some support
– Some seats with significant Melanau+Malay population fell short of the 50% requirement for ethnic majority seats. These were placed in the Mixed category
– don’t think of it as PR got less than BN, its actually PR 2011 got less than PR 2006

To give you more to think about, here are the voter population growth rates since 2006:

Chinese – 2.07%
Bidayuh – 23.57%
Iban – 12.65%
Orang Ulu – 21.79%
Melanau+Malay – 11.44%

Ahmed Kamal

* PR did not contest every seat in 2006. The perecentage of seats contested is shown in parentheses()
* Popular vote calculated based on valid votes cast during the election. Spoilt/lost votes not included
* Ethnic majority determined by which voter ethnicity is >50% of the seat
—————-
View seat details at http://politweet.org/site/live_sarawak.html
Summary of the data used, including who won in 2011:

Chinese – 13 seats, PR: 11, BN: 2
N9 PADUNGAN
N10 PENDING
N11 BATU LINTANG
N12 KOTA SENTOSA
N13 BATU KAWAH
N39 REPOK
N45 BUKIT ASSEK
N46 DUDONG
N47 BAWANG ASSAN
N48 PELAWAN
N63 PIASAU
N64 PUJUT
N65 SENADIN

Mixed – 3 seats, PR: 1, BN: 2
N59 KIDURONG
N61 BEKENU
N62 LAMBIR

Bidayuh – 6 seats, PR: 0, BN: 6
N1 OPAR
N2 TASIK BIRU
N16 BENGOH
N17 TARAT
N18 TEBEDU
N19 KEDUP

Iban – 20 seats, PR: 2, BN: 17, IND: 1
N25 BALAI RINGIN
N26 BUKIT BEGUNAN
N27 SIMANGGANG
N28 ENGKILILI
N29 BATANG AIR
N31 LAYAR
N32 BUKIT SABAN
N34 KRIAN
N40 MERADONG
N41 PAKAN
N42 MELUAN
N43 NGEMAH
N44 MACHAN
N52 TAMIN
N53 KAKUS
N54 PELAGUS
N55 KATIBAS
N56 BALEH
N60 KEMENA
N66 MARUDI

Orang Ulu – 4 seats, PR: 1, BN: 3
N57 BELAGA
N67 TELANG USAN
N69 BATU DANAU
N70 BA’KELALAN

Melanau+Malay – 25 seats, PR: 0, BN: 25
N3 TANJONG DATU
N4 PANTAI DAMAI
N5 DEMAK LAUT
N6 TUPONG
N7 SAMARIANG
N8 SATOK
N14 ASAJAYA
N15 MUARA TUANG
N20 SADONG JAYA
N21 SIMUNJAN
N22 SEBUYAU
N23 LINGGA
N24 BETING MARO
N30 SARIBAS
N33 KALAKA
N35 BELAWAI
N36 SEMOP
N37 DARO
N38 JEMORENG
N49 NANGKA
N50 DALAT
N51 BALINGIAN
N58 JEPAK
N68 BUKIT KOTA
N71 BUKIT SARI

Written by politweet

April 24, 2011 at 3:27 am

Did BN retain its popular vote in Sarawak SE 2011?

For the most part, BN failed to retain the popular vote it had in each seat from 2006. You can view a listing of seats at http://www.politweet.org/site/live_sarawak.html

Here is the list of % changes in each DUN, as per the graph:

BELAGA 25.85

ENGKILILI 25.18
BATANG AIR 15.21
SADONG JAYA 13.71
SARIBAS 13.42
MERADONG 12.99
PANTAI DAMAI 12
SAMARIANG 10.56
BUKIT BEGUNAN 8.28
BATU DANAU 7.59
BALAI RINGIN 7.43
JEMORENG 7.36
SEMOP 4.9
KEMENA 4.61
NGEMAH 4.11
BELAWAI 3.38
BUKIT KOTA 2.54
LINGGA 0.58

DARO 0
DALAT 0

DEMAK LAUT -1.65
SIMUNJAN -2.04
DUDONG -2.25
BUKIT SABAN -2.47
MUARA TUANG -2.57
SATOK -3.51
BAWANG ASSAN -4.23
PAKAN -4.57
MARUDI -5.42
SEBUYAU -5.47
NANGKA -5.52
KEDUP -5.55
TUPONG -5.98
BETING MARO -6.13
PENDING -6.38
BUKIT SARI -6.73
BEKENU -6.88
ASAJAYA -7.68
TANJONG DATU -7.97
TEBEDU -8.31
MELUAN -8.46
BUKIT ASSEK -9.63
KOTA SENTOSA -9.74
TAMIN -9.8
TASIK BIRU -10.72
JEPAK -11.24
BALEH -11.4
BATU LINTANG -11.6
BA’KELALAN -11.71
BENGOH -12.07
LAYAR -12.55
TARAT -12.85
REPOK -12.97
KIDURONG -13.78
BALINGIAN -14.23
OPAR -14.58
KALAKA -15.18
MACHAN -15.34
PELAWAN -16.69
KATIBAS -16.94
KAKUS -17
SIMANGGANG -18
PUJUT -19.27
LAMBIR -19.39
PADUNGAN -20.41
TELANG USAN -23.18
BATU KAWAH -24.29
SENADIN -24.93
KRIAN -28.09
PIASAU -28.87
PELAGUS -35.03

I would like to reiterate that the popular vote is calculated as:

Popular Vote for X = Valid votes cast for X / Valid votes cast in total

This removes the factors of spoilt and missing votes. There are pro/cons to that but this is the formula that I’ll be using for all stats.

Ahmed Kamal

Written by politweet

April 23, 2011 at 3:23 am